UFC 146

The all heavyweight main card is upon us, and though it bodes to be the fastest main card in UFC history (heavyweights have the shortest average bout length in the UFC at just over 7 minutes), it still promises to be full of excitement, and not lacking in dynamic finishes. Intresting note, none of the five main card fights stand as they were when first booked, due to injury, failed PED tests, and have been shuffled around a bit since the card was announced in early March.

Stipe Miocic vs. Shane del Rosario
heavyweight

In del Rosarios first UFC fight, he will look to put back on track, a surging streak that was derailed by a cart accident early last year. He finds himself facing a man in Miocic who is equally tough, and looking to put his own stamp on the UFCs heavyweight division.

Miocic is a strong stand up fighter, but his ground game is a little suspect. He has a slight height advantage, but for him to win this fight, he is likely going to want to keep it standing. Miocic has got some nasty leg kicks, and is a former Golden Gloves winner. He does have the ability to take the fight to the ground, with a bit of a background in wrestling, but against a grappler of del Rosarios ability, going to the ground is probably going to be a last resort.

Del Rosario is a former world champion kickboxer, but since his transition to mma, he has also found success in the submission department. He even owns a win via omoplata, which in the professional ranks, is impressive indeed. He has very good cardio, and with a big advantage on the ground, and a slight disadvantage at best on the feet, this fight is his to win. Miocic is tough, and the potential for del Rosario not having recovered from his car accident which left him with a herniated disc in his back, are what really make this fight an interesting one. Ultimately, del Rosario is too much, and his unbeaten streak continues.

del Rosario via submission (arm bar) Rd. 2

Dave "Pee-Wee" Herman vs. Roy "Big Country" Nelson
heavyweight

Herman, is a talented, tough, game fighter. He also happens to be a knucklehead, with a terrible fight IQ. For him to win, he will have to be patient, execute a game plan, and avoid the big overhand right of Nelson. The last is possible, but the first two are highly improbable. Nelson is maybe the toughest guy in the UFCs heavyweight division. Along with being extremely talented, he is a very technically savvy fighter, and quite aware of his strengths and weaknesses. With a quickness that belies his girth, he can close distances well, and uses his thick frame to complement his substantial grappling prowess.

Herman has always been a quick learner, and naturally athletic. He is light for the weight class, but has height and reach over most of his opponents, and to beat Nelson, he must utilize that range as best he can, to prevent Nelson from closing into clinches and tie ups.

Ultimately, this is Nelsons fight to lose, as he is simply a smarter fighter. However, if Herman decides to fight using his noggin, and not like an animal, he could make this a very interesting scrap. History tells us that something will inevitably go wrong though, and Nelson will likely finish it in the second.

Nelson via TKO, Rd. 2


Stefan "Skyscraper" Struve vs. Lavar "Big" Johnson
heavyweight

After his first round KO of Pat Barry, Johnson finds himself in the unenviable position of fighting the tallest fighter in the UFC. A hard punching brawler,  Johnson is stout on the feet, but very green on the ground. Struve is younger, more experienced, and a vastly superior grappler, but can get in to trouble because he doesn't move his head well, and tends to take a lot of unnecessary damage.

Johnson needs to make this fight ugly, and not try to get too technical. While Struve could certainly pick Johnson apart with his unreal reach advantage (eight inches) it's in his best interest to get this fight to the ground immediately, and exploit the holes in Johnsons submission defense.As soon as this fight was announced, the thought came to my mind that either Struve was going to get KOd, or Johnson was going to get submitted. I stand by that here, and think that Struve's ability to throw up submissions at will from anywhere on the mat wins him the fight with an early second round triangle.

Struve via submission (triangle) Rd. 2


Cain Velasquez vs. Antonio "Pezao" Silva
heavyweight

Velasquez steps backinto the Octagon for the first time since losing his title to Junior dos Santos, and he takes on newcomer Silva in an attempt to get his first career loss behind him. Silva most recently competed in the Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix, defeating the legendary Fedor Emilianenko, before being bested by eventual tournament winner, Daniel Cormier. Velasquez has an amazing gas tank, quick hands, and was an All American wrestler at Arizona State, against the heavy hands and bjj black belt of Silva, he will need to be sharp and precise.

Silva has come a long way from the plodding colossus he was in years past. His stand up is getting cleaner, and he is one of the better submission artists in the heavyweight division. He still doesn't have much in the speed department, and has shown to not possess the most sturdy of chins either. Velasquez is another of a new breed of heavyweights that do not push right up against the weight limit, instead, he relies on speed and technique to bring power to the fight, instead of sheer size. In the loss to dos Santos, he was coming off of an injury, but he got dropped with an overhand right because his hands were down, and his chin wasn't tucked. Though Silva doesn't possess dos Santos' speed, he can put your lights out with one punch, so Velasquez would do well to be cautious of the Brazilians power.

Ultimately, Velasquez is a big favorite here, and it is no secret why. Fantastic cardio, exceptional quickness and power, and an amazingly well rounded skill set make this fight more of a when, then if for Velasquez. Barring some kinda flukey KO or submission, I see Velasquez depleting Silvas gas tank early, on his way to a second round TKO.

Velasquez via TKO, Rd. 2


HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP
Champion: Junior "Cigano" dos Santos vs. Frank Mir

Well, here we are. Dos Santos' first title defense, and it comes against a fighter in Mir who while dangerous, has historically had problems with the kind of offense dos Santos brings to bear. A hard punching, multi combo throwing boxing stylist, dos Santos has run rough shod over the UFCs heavyweight division. Against Mir, he will of course have to be wary of the most dangerous submission artist in UFC history (from a wins by submission standpoint), but he is also fighting a southpaw, and an underrated striker. Though Mir may not light the world on fire with his strikes, his southpaw stance, and the fact that he is a big strong dude are issues that dos Santos would do well to not ignore.

Make no mistake about it, Mir should want to get this fight to the ground, IMMEDIATELY. Standing and trading with dos Santos has historically been a one way ticket to lights outville, and Mir has a notoriously flimsy chin. One area of dos Santos that we know next to nothing about, is his ground game. His take down defense has been superb, and he simply has not been taken off of his feet. He also is not a one shot power puncher, but instead throws blindingly quick combinations and keeps opponents on their heels, which is likely what he will employ against Mir until he wilts from the pressure. Mir needs to measure distance, and either stay on the periphery, or get in to the clinch where he can initiate a trip or pull guard. Shooting in for a take down is not the best idea in general against dos Santos, and for Mir especially since that area of his grappling is adequate at best. He might even pull guard, should that opportunity arise.

Sadly, this fight is more of a "when" then "if" fight. Dos Santos would have to make a huge mental mistake to let Mir get the upper hand. Even though Mir has shown a propensity for snapping limbs, he'll be nowhere near enough to one of any of the extremities of dos Santos to get a chance to do so, and I'd honestly be surprised if Mir makes it out of the first round.

*sigh*

Dos Santos via TKO, Rd. 1 (but I'm rooting hard for you Frank!!!)