UFC 137

With the original headliner changed twice now due first to Nick Diaz getting pulled from a title fight due to being Nick Diaz, and then the title fight getting scrapped altogether because champion Georges St. Pierre suffered a knee injury, this card has taken a few hits. Nevertheless, we still have a good fight card ahead of us, and here is what I think is going to go down tonight

Jeff "The Big Frog" Curran vs. Scott "Young Guns" Jorgensen
bantamweight

Curran makes his return to the UFC, two weight classes below where he fought for the organization previously, while Jorgensen looks to put his stamp on returning to title contention. Curran is well rounded, but is most well known for his submission game, especially off of his back. Jorgensen is rapidly becoming a very well rounded fighter himself, but still relies on a solid wrestling game backed up by brutal ground and pound. Curran is as tough as they come, and isn't going to be a walk in the park for Jorgensen, but "Young Guns" is too strong, to fast, and has too much top pressure to give Curran any space to work his game. Jorgensen wins a spirited decision, but Curran will definitely make him work for it.

Jorgensen via Unanimous Decision

Hatsu Hioki vs. George Roop
featherweight

Hioke makes his UFC debut, and will try to back up the impressive record he's amassed fighting over seas. Roop continues to show he is more than the fighter we saw on season nine of The Ultimate Fighter. Hioki has a very strong submission game, but also has sneaky stand up that he uses to set up his bread and butter. Roop, probably the tallest 145 pounder in the UFC, has improved in every fight since coming to the Zuffa organizations. His striking and take down defense have grown by leaps and bounds, and he will give Hioki everything he can handle. I see Hioki being somewhat stifled by the reach of Roop, but eventually getting him to the ground, where Roops 6'1" frame will work against him. Hioki will find a way to get Roop to tap early in the second round in a fairly entertaining fight.

Hioki via Submission, Rd. 2

Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic vs. Roy "Big Country" Nelson
heavyweight

In a fight where both men desperately need a win, it figures to come down to who wants it more. Filipovic hasn't been even close to the fighter he was before the UFC, and is staring potential retirement in the face. Nelson has battled criticism of his motivation, and physique, but perhaps he can put to rest at least half of that tonight. On the feet, when motivated, Filipovic has the edge here. Unfortunately he hasn't seemed to have been motivated quite some time, and seems content to back up and let the fight come to him. When moving forward and using punches to set up his devastating kicks, he can be a terror. This coupled with his surprisingly stout ground game make him a fighter not to take lightly, if no longer feared. Nelson is an extremely well rounded fighter, combining strong power in his stand up, with a sophisticated ground game that most take lightly due to his portly appearance. The downside to that, is that Nelson has a fairly deficient offensive take down skill set, and Filipovic has solid take down defense, so this will most likely turn into a stand up fight, which favors the Croatian. A spirited fight early will slow as it progresses, and though Nelson will have spots where he he will look good, Filipovic will outlast him, and perhaps send Nelson out of the UFC in a decision.

Filipovic via Unanimous Decision

Cheick Kongo vs. Matt "Meathead" Mitrione
heavyweight

This fight will most likely be decided on the feet. Now that I have gotten the fairly obvious out of the way, lets move on to the specifics. Kongo is a chiseled beast of a man, with KO power and as he showed in his last fight, a surprising recuperative ability. He hits hard and accurately, and is getting better at stuffing take downs, and getting up off the mat when he does get taken down. Submission defense is still a glaring weakness, but in this fight, it may not come into play at all. With only five career MMA fights to his name, you'd think Mitrione would be at a huge disadvantage here. The fact is, he's a fantastic athlete who is rapidly picking up the game, and each time he steps into the Octagon, he fights a higher caliber fighter, and has finished all but one of his fights via KO or TKO. Kongo is the cleaner striker, but has a suspect chin. Mitrione might hit a bit harder, and has a head like a mountain goat. In a war of attrition, Mitrione is tougher, and in my opinion, harder to lay hands on, and will either win a lopsided decision, or nasty TKO. "Meathead" takes this one, and potentially puts himself in position for a big fight after this.

Mitrione via TKO, Rd. 2

BJ "The Prodigy" Penn vs. Nick Diaz
welterweight

This fight should prove to be the fight of the night as the two veterans lock horns in what may be a number one contender match behind Carlos Condit. Diaz wins and he gets the title fight he originally cost himself by being a knucklehead, and if Penn wins, well, we'll see what Dana White decides. In the stand up department, both men favor boxing, with Penn being the more technically sound, and bigger puncher, and Diaz having the reach advantage, coupled with his high volume "punches in bunches" style. Both men have outstanding chins, and will look to simply batter the other into submission. On the ground, they are both black belts in brazilian jiu jitsu, but with different approaches. Penn uses his ground game to look for sweeps and reversals to gain top position and either pound you out, or take your back and choke you from there. Diaz is more offensively aggressive, looking to grab whatever he can and bend or twist it in a direction it was not intended to be. Neither man has ever been submitted, and I don't see that changing tonight. If Penn is properly motivated, there are few in the world that can stop him. When he isn't, his gas tank betrays him, and a lack of desire is evident. Never one to shy away from a scrap, Diaz can push a pace few can match, and motivation is always there, but can he rise to the occasion, and be the fighter everyone wants him to be? That is where he is deficient, and it my be too much to overcome. This will be a stand up war, and Penn will take advantage of the looping punches that Diaz throws, and score more often than the Stockton native. Diaz will get his shots in, but they wont be enough as Penn wins a wildly entertaining decision, and the challenger after Condit for the 170 pound title will once again be up in the air.

Penn via Unanimous Decision.