UFC 130

No time for chit chat, lets get down to the fights!

Brian "All-American" Stann vs. Jorge Santiago
middleweight

Stann looked extremely impressive in his last fight, knocking out the extremely durable Chris Leben in the first round. A former WEC light heavyweight champion, Stann is now making waves as a middleweight, and has shown improvement in every fight. He has KO power in both hands, and is a very tough fighter to take down, which he'll need to flex in this fight, as Santiago is wicked slick on the ground. Santiago is making his second go around in the UFC after a less than impressive debut that saw him go 1-2, with two knockout losses. Since then he's amassed an impressive 11-1 record including two epic fights with Kazuo Misaki, the second of which was a Fight of the Year candidate from last year. His stand up is solid, if not unspectacular, but his real strength is his ground game, where he's secured over half his career wins.

The tough part of this fight for Santiago is the fact that he doesn't have a particularly durable chin, and Stann hits like a freight train. Stann has the more technical stand up, and is not likely to let this fight go to the ground. Santiago will hang on as best he can, but with the pace Stann likes to set, I'll be surprised to see this fight make it past two rounds before Santiago hits the canvas courtesy of a right hand from "All American".

Stann via KO, Rd. 2.


Stefan "Skyscraper" Struve vs Travis "Hapa" Browne
heavyweight

Two simply monstrous men square off in this heavyweight tilt, and it doesn't appear to be headed towards the judges hands. Both fighters have won 90% of their fights via stoppage, and that trend doesn't look to stop here. Struve is only 23, but has over 25 fights as a professional. He's 6"11', and is continuously packing more muscle onto his lanky frame, but while that bodes well for his striking power, his real bread and butter is his frighteningly smooth submission game, which has garnered him 14 of his 21 career wins. Browne is for the first time in his career facing a fighter taller than him, but at 6'7, he's only a few inches below the towering Dutchman. With a purple belt in bjj, Browne is no slouch on the ground, and has a very strong stand up game. He also has an undefeated record, and has suffered only a draw to Cheick Kongo to mar his fighting slate. While both men have a great deal of talent when a fight hits the mat, they also both like to swing leather, and if that's the case, this fight may not make it out of the first round. Look for Browne to swarm early, but Struve will keep his distance, and utilize his reach to keep the Hawaiian at bay. Browne's suspect gas tank will come into play late in the first round, and if Browne doesn't get caught by then, this fight will be Struves to finish very early in the second.

Struve via TKO, Rd. 1



Rick "Horror" Story vs. Thiago "Pitbull" Alves
welterweight

A battle tested veteran takes on a hungry up and comer in this battle of 170 pounders. There's also a good chance that the winner of this fight could find themselves looking being only a fight away from a number one contender's match up, but they have to focus on their opponent, because Alves has one punch KO power and some of the nastiest leg kicks around, while Story is as mentally strong as they come, and with a granite chin, and scary determined wrestling. This fight should be a barn burner, with Story looking to prove he belongs with the best of the division, and Alves trying to climb back to a title shot.

Alves looked great in his last fight, a dominant decision victory over John Howard. His Muay Thai is nasty, and he has leg kicks that come quicker than almost anyone elses in the UFC. His ground game is underrated, but mostly because he rarely lets fights get to the ground, and relies on his stand up to wreck opponents. Story has a solid wrestling background, and is also frighteningly strong, as evidenced by his arm triangle submission from the guard over Brian Foster. He's tough as nails, and has the cardio to go hard for a full three rounds, something Alves has lacked in the past. With his gas tank issues seemingly solved, Alves should be able to pick Story apart at range, and prevent the fight from even coming close to the mat. Expect leg kicks and counter punching from Alves for most of the fight, stuffing the Story take downs, and getting the unanimous decision.

Alves via Unanimous Decision


Frank Mir vs. Roy "Big Country" Nelson
heavyweight

In a fight that brings the winner that much closer to title relevance, this could come down to who can out strategize the other. Mir is the more technical striker, with better head movement, and throws solid combinations. His take down defense is pedestrian at best, but is very adept at fighting off of his back and searching for submissions. Nelson has big KO power, and is a vastly underrated grappler. While he's not the most accomplished wrestler, his heart and toughness are second to none, as proven by getting pummeled without relent in his fight with Junior Dos Santos, but making it through all three rounds. This fight will be a very interesting one to watch, mostly to see how these fighters try and out fox the other. Nelson needs to wade through the combos, get inside, and work the body, trying to find Mir's suspect chin with his big overhand right. Mir wants to keep distance, work jabs and hooks, and perhaps some leg kicks as well, to try and slow down Nelson. If the fight goes to the ground, Mir needs to keep Nelson off of him, and work ground and pound, going for a submission if he feels he can finish it. Nelson wants to stay out of the guard of Mir, but also wants to keep his pressure and weight firmly pressing Mir to the mat.

I think this will be a good chess match of a fight, with Mir's athleticism being the deciding factor. Nelson will withstand an early barrage, maybe try for a take down or two, but with the superior striking of Mir, Nelson just wont be able to close the distance, and wont be able to land the home run shot. Mir gets his hand raised after three rounds of putting on a clinic.

Mir via Unanimous Decision


Quinton "Rampage" Jackson vs. Matt "The Hammer" Hamill
light heavyweight

Does Hamill belong with the upper echelon of the light heavyweight division? He's going to find out against Jackson, and how he does could determine the likelihood of him getting a crack at the title. With stout clinch work, improving stand up, and brutal power, Hamill is not one to be taken lightly. Jackson, on the other hand, is all boxing, take down defense, and though it's been a while, nasty slams. For Jackson it hasn't been about ability as of late, but motivation. He admittedly hasn't been pushed mentally to fight since his showdown with Rashad Evans, and with his original opponent Thiago Silva scratched and replaced by Hamill, the question is, can Jackson find the desire to compete at the highest level?

When it comes to stand up, Jackson is a very technical boxer, with solid footwork and head movement, picking good angles, and a tough chin on top of it all. He's been susceptible to leg kicks in the past, as well as good wrestlers. He needs to keep this fight standing, and out of the clinch, where he's shown an inability to prevent knees, elbows, and trips. Hamill is a brute in the clinch, and hits hard, though he seems to just wing his punches from the outside, instead of setting them up, though his head movement is getting better. He needs to attack the base of Jackson, and close the distance to try and get the fight to the mat, or there's a good chance he'll have only his second KO loss on his record, as "Rampage" is not someone you want to trade in the pocket with.

Jackson is quicker to the punch, and hits plenty hard. The areas he is weak at, Hamill is modest at best, and doesn't possess the skills to truly exploit the holes Jackson has. Jackson weathers a rough patch early in the second, but for the most part cruises to a solid, if unspectacular decision victory.

Jackson via Unanimous Decision