UFC 128

This Saturday's UFC card brings us some very exciting and interesting fights. Some of them have potential to have title implications, and some are just going to be plain fun! It's shaping up to be a great night of fights, so let's get right down to it.

Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic vs. Brendan "The" Hybrid" Schaub
heavyweight

Schaub is an up and comer in the UFC's heavyweight division, and after lsoing to grizzled vet Roy Nelson in the finals of TUF 10, he has won three straight, including a thorough dismantling of former UFC champ, Gabriel Gonzaga last October. Cro Cop is a former champion himself, but on the back end of a truly impressive career. In September, he was knocked out by Frank Mir in a fight where neither man looked truly impressive. Since returning to the UFC after a pedestrian 1-2 showing in his first stint with the company, Cro Cop has gone 3-2, and despite his days of challenging for the heavyweight title seemingly behind him, he still is one of the most feared strikers in MMA, andposes a serious threat to Schaub's ascendancy into the upper echelon of the heavyweight division.

A heavy handed, and athletic fighter, Schaub is still an individual learning the ropes, and improving his skills constantly. He is, however, more than capable of beating Cro Cop, so long as he sticks with the game plan his coaches lay out for him, which I imagine is something along the lines of pressure him, work the clinch, close distance, and get take downs when he can. Staying at range to allow the Croatian to gauge distance and timing for his legendary striking is at beast an invitation for pain, and at worst, a ticket to a highlight reel KO loss. Schaub is a big, powerful man, who can cause a lot of destruction with ground and pound, but if he cannot manage to get Cro Cop to the mat, he may be in for a long night, provided Cro Cop's head is in the game.

Having struggled with motivation in his last several fights, Cro Cop can be his own worst enemy. He has shown a reluctance to really let his hands and feet go, and that has cost him. In his heyday, he was elusive on the defensive front, capable of unleashing lighting quick counter shots, and pouncing on injured or stunned opponents. If he doesn't maintain distance from Schaub, and work from the perimeter, he's asking to get mauled in the clinch, and if not stopped from there, taken down and pounded out. A wild card may be Cro Cop's ground game. Not necessarily the best out there, but still, Cro Cop has been at this for a while, and at the very least has an experience edge on Schaub as far as fighting MMA. Cro Cop may be able to get a quick choke if Schaub leaves his head out while going for a take down, but this fight will likely be submission free. Cro Cop may start out strong, but Schaub will close the distance, and manage to eventually get the fight to the ground, and work some nasty ground and pound. He may not finish the fight, but he will win a very dominant decision.

Schaub, via Unanimous Decision


Nate "The Great" Marquardt vs. Dan Miller
middleweight

Originally scheduled to fight Yoshihiro Akiyama, who had to pull out due to the massive earthquake that has devastated much of Japan, Marquardt now faces Miller, a very tough, well rounded fighter who was pulled from an under card fight to replace Akiyama. Marquardt suffered a loss to Yushin Okami in October, and with it a chance to possibly face Anderson Silva. Now he looks to get back on track to a title fight, and it begins with Miller, but it's no easy fight.

Miller is a solid stand up fighter, and very talented on the ground. With eight of his thirteen MMA victories coming via submission, he is not someone to take lightly on the ground. He sometimes doesn't have the best luck sticking with his bread and butter though, as evidenced by his losses to Michael Bisping, Chael Sonnen and Demian Maia. Perhaps those were just instances of him facing fighters he wasn't ready for, or just over matched against. When he fights his fight, he can be very difficult to beat. Against Marquardt though, he'll need to bring everything he has to the table, or he'll be on the receiving end of a sound beating.

Though his opponent has changed, Marquardt will still be ready for Miller, and with the advantage he has in the stand up department, and considerable ability he possesses on the ground, he will be quite a lot for Miller to handle. Both men are BJJ black belts, and neither is giving up much in reach. Marquardt appears to be the stronger of the fighters, and the more explosive. Miller will need to avoid the big shots, and try to work a take down so he can get his ground game going from the top, as Marquardt has had troubles working off his back. If Miller can't get the fight out of the stand up arena, he will be in big trouble, as Marquardt is equally comfortable throwing kicks and punches, and he throws them in great numbers with intent to punish each, and every time.

Marquardt should win this fight, and without too much work. Miller is very game, and as tough as they come, but his striking is just not at the same level as Marquardt, and that will be evident early on. As Miller gets frustrated, he may try to get the fight to the mat, and if he's worn out from getting beat up on the feet, he may leave himself open to catching a big knee, or maybe even getting caught in a sub. In any event, I see Marquardt getting a stoppage finish midway through the second round.

Marquardt via TKO, Rd. 2


Jim Miller vs. Kamal "The Prince of Persia" Shalorus
lightweight

This fight would be a heavy favorite for fight of the night, if not for the main event. Miller has been ripping up the lightweight division, and has only suffered losses to the two men currently set to settle their draw for the lightweight title, Frankie Edgar and Gray Maynard. Shalorus is an iron chinned striker, with world class wrestling, and he is not afraid to take a punch to give one. In a fight where both men are hungry for a chance to potentially get a title fight, this one should leave it all out on the table.

Shalorus has displayed his go for broke, break your opponent at all costs style in entertaining fights with Bart Palaszewski, and Jamie Varner. He is more than happy to throw punches in great volume, and will fight for take downs until he gets them, and seems to have an endless reserve of energy. Against Miller though, he may want to tread more carefully, and be judicious about his offensive output, because any small mistake will be capitalized on by Miller, and he can make you pay.

Miller is no slouch in the wrestling department, and has phenomenal ground skills as a BJJ black belt. His striking is also very solid, and the fact that he is so well rounded makes him very difficult to game plan. He may want to test the feet against Shalorus, but if he really wants to get a dominant win, he really should use his strikes to set up take downs, and work his submission game from the top. Though Shalorus has never tasted defeat, Miller will simply be too much for him, and may threaten to finish him several times over the course of a very entertaining, and very one sided decision victory for Miller.

Miller via Unanimous Decision.

Urijah "The California Kid" vs. Eddie Wineland
bantamweight

In Faber makes his long awaited UFC debut, and is facing another former WEC champion in Wineland, who has a very similar style, and isn't afraid to get in there and go toe to toe with anyone. Faber will need to be on top of his game, and keep things crisp, because Wineland is a very strong striker, and has a solid wrestling and jiu jitsu game to back it up, fortunately, Faber is no slouch in those areas either.

Long the poster boy for the WEC, Faber suffered set backs in two tough losses to then champion Mike Brown and another loss to current champ Jose Aldo. After taking some time off, he made the decision to drop to bantamweight, and won his first fight in the weight class by submitting Takeya Mizugaki. Now as a 135 pound fighter, Faber still has the speed and quickness that made him so tough at 145, but he also now has a size and strength most fighters in the division don't have. He will pose a problem for most fighters, and if Wineland doesn't step lightly, he will find himself on the long list of fighters with a loss on their record thanks to "The California Kid".

With both fighters possessing excellent cardio and well rounded skill sets, it could just come down to a question of who wants it more, and it's hard to see Faber being outdone in that department. Wineland will give him some cause for concern early, but with the patience to weather the storm, Faber will come through and just be too much for Wineland to handle. I see Faber just wearing Wineland out late in the second, or early in the third and catching a submission, either a guillotine, or maybe a rear naked choke, but either way, Faber will get a tap, and with it, a chance to fight Dominic Cruz for the bantamweight title.

Faber via submission (guillotine) Rd. 2


UFC Light heavyweight championship
Champion Mauricio "Shogun" Rua vs. Jon "Bones" Jones

When Jones' training partner Rashad Evans went down with an injury, Jones was tapped to replace him in his fight for the 205 pound belt against Rua. This in itself is not noteworthy. What is was how it was done. Fresh off defeating Ryan Bader in impressive fashion, Jones was informed of the decision to have him replace Evans during his post fight interview by Joe Rogan while still in the ring. Jones accepted, and fast forward six weeks, and here we are. Rua stands tall as the champ, yet betting lines make Jones the favorite, in spite of his young age and relative inexperience in the sport. Jones' meteoric rise to title contender has been nothing short of amazing, and this Saturday, we'll find out if it's all been justified, or simply hype.

Rua came into the UFC heralded as the best light heavyweight in the world, and was promptly pummeled for nearly three rounds before being choked out by Forrest Griffin. It was later revealed that he had taken the fight despite having a very badly injured knee, but he still looked like a shadow of the fighter who had ruled the PRIDE Fighting Championships for nearly three years. After a year and a half lay off due to another knee injury, he fought Mark Coleman. Despite winning, he still looked worn, and hardly the man who had beaten such fighters as Rampage Jackson, Alistair Overeem (twice), Ricardo Arona, and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. Turns out it was simply ring rust at that point, because he went on to flatten Chuck Liddell, engage then title holder Lyoto Machida in an epic five round war (which many people, myself included, thought he won) and then avenge his loss to Machida by pounding him out inside four minutes and becoming the 205 pound champ. Rua has nasty muy thai strikes, and a very slick style on the ground that makes him very difficult to hold down. He's extremely quick, and has had no problems with fighters who have more reach and size than he does. He also can take a punch, and has never been knocked out in his career. Can Jones overcome these obstacles in order to become the new champion?

For Jones to win, he's going to have to keep the pressure on Rua constantly. His striking is creative and unorthodox, but it also leaves holes, and that's something Rua can capitalize on in a heartbeat. If Jones can get into the clinch, he can use his massively long arms to work body strikes, and try to get Rua down to the mat, where his elbows become devices for facial destruction, and Rua can ill afford to stay down for long. This fight will be a spectacular one to behold, and I think Jones will have a very strong showing, but he's just not quite ready for a fighter of Rua's caliber, quite yet. I see "Shogun" starting off by putting the pressure on Jones, and keeping him off balance. Keeping Jones from getting started, and finding his groove will get Rua confident, and may frustrate Jones. In any event, Rua will be ready for Jones, and is likely to drag him into deeper waters than he has been before, and will start to pull away late after a close couple of opening rounds. Rua may get a late stoppage, but will likely walk away with belt in hand after a rugged five round war, resulting in the judges nodding in agreement for a unanimous decision.

Rua via Unanimous Decision