UFC 127

So this Saturdays offering from the UFC is not the strongest in recent memory, but we have a number one contender match for the welterweight division, and a few other fights with potential title implications. It may not be compelling on paper, but come Sunday morning, we may be whistling a different tune.

Kyle "KO" Noke vs. Chris Camozzi
middleweight

The evening will kick off with a couple of TUF alumni looking to make an impact and maintain gainful employment with the UFC. Noke is a very tough competitor with a well rounded game, and is Autralian to boot. He will definitely be feeding off the crowd and looking to show the fellow Aussies a good fight. Camozzi actually never made it into the house on TUF, due to an injury he suffered in the elimination fight. He is a very solid fighter, and has a decidely larger frame than Noke, and that could come into play in later rounds.

This fight is fairly even, but it could come down to something as simple as who wants it more. Camozzi is a very strong, and technically sound fighter, who will try to use his reach to dictate the stand up. Noke is a bit more seasoned, and is durable as heck. He's going to need to get inside Camozzi's range, and either work shots to the body, or get the fight to the ground, and work his ground game, which has a bit more polish on it than Camozzi's does. I think Camozzi will be able to withstand anything Noke throws at him, and wears "KO" down in the later round to score an upset victory in Noke's homeland with a tough split decision.

Camozzi via Split Decision

Chris "Lights Out" Lytle vs. Brian "Bad Boy" Ebersole
welterweight

With Ebersole stepping in for an injured Carlos Condit on just a couple weeks notice, this has all the hallmarks of a fight that should be relatively easy for Lytle. Digging a little deeper shows that this might not be the case. Ebersole has over 60 career fights, so experience isn't likely to play a factor. They both have comparable reaches and physically are very close to each other, so size wont be an issue. This really could be a fantastic fight, with one fighter making his UFC debut, and the other looking to get closer to making the case that he is more than a gatekeeper and maybe should be getting some title buzz.

Lytle has never been stopped, not counting two fights where the doctor called a stop due to a cut, and is just a machine in the Octagon. Having won four fights in a row, and won convincingly, Lytle was looking to make a case for title consideration in the fight with Condit, but now is fighting someone who he his expected to beat. Ebersole is very well rounded, and isn't shy about bringing the fight to his opponent, but in Lytle, that may not be the best idea. Ebersole has never been stopped with a KO or TKO, but has suffered over half of his defeats in the form of submission, which is a very strong part of Lytle's game. I see Ebersole trying to trade leather with Lytle, which is never that great of an idea, and when that doesn't work, trying to get the fight to the ground, where Lytle really shines, and manages to secure a second round submission with a sneaky armbar. Expect Lytle to be humble in victory, and as likeable as ever.

Lytle via submission (armbar) Rd. 2


George Sotiropoulos vs. Dennis Siver
lightweight

Sotiropoulos is just a couple quality wins away from getting a shot at the lightweight belt, but before he can think about that, he has to worry about the German tank in front of him in the form of Siver, with his extremely solid striking, punctuated by his ridiculous spinning back kick that nearly everyone is aware of. Outside of the striking, Siver is a very competent grappler, but it's unlikely that he'll want to take the fight to the mat, as Sotiropoulos is simply phenomenal on the ground as he proved by submitting Joe Lauzon in a fantastic fight. This could be a very interesting scrap, and should help clarify the title picture contenders for the lightweight division.

Siver is a much shorter fighter, but he is incredibly thick, and very strong. While his striking isn't quite at the top of the divison, it is very effective, and much more technical than Sotiropoulos. He has shown great ability to seize submission opportunities when they present themselves, but Sotiropoulos isn't likely to give him more than a sniff at one, so his best bet is to keep the Aussie standing, and either try to knock him out or out point him. Sotiropoulos has a big reach advantage, but his striking has never been the strong part of his game. Siver has only been knocked out once in his career, but over half of his losses have come in the form of submissions, something Sotiropoulos is very familiar with. An uncanny ability to find sweeps and arm locks, and to get the fight to the mat, regardless of what his opponent does, Sotiropoulos will get a chance to finish this fight in the late first round, or early second round, and will likely lock up an choke of some sort, despite some exciting stand up offense from the German.

Sotiropoulos via submission (rear naked choke) Rd. 2

Michael "The Count" Bisping vs. Jorge "El Conquistador" Rivera
middleweight

The war of words leading up to this fight has been substantial, and we likely could see a potential victim....er contender for the 185 pound belt. Until that happens, we have a very exciting fights, with the silky smooth technician in Bisping, and the more aggressive heavy handed brawler in Rivera. Both men are tall and lanky fighters, with more than a little inclination to keep the fight standing. Neither possesses much in the way of a ground game that should concern the other fighter should the fight make it to the mat, but they also have a desire to put the other man out with strikes, and my guess is we'll see two veteran strikers slug it out until someone gets dropped, or the final horn sounds.

Bisping is tough to pin down, and difficult to hit cleanly, unless your name is Dan Henderson, but even then, Bisping was doing a good job of avoiding the punches until Henderson landed a nuclear overhand right that Mongo would have been proud of. While Rivera packs a punch, he doesn't go head hunting like that, and is much more patient, and sets up his shots before he goes in for the kill. In Bisping, Rivera has an opponent that will not just stick his chin out and beg to be hit. "El Conquistador will have to be patient, and perhaps prepare for a three round war. Bisping has shown in the past that he has no problem sticking to a gameplan and working his stand up in order to out point his opponent, especially if going toe to toe isn't in his best interest. It will likely be a close fight, with Bisping picking his shots, and Rivera getting increasingly frustrated, until the final horn sounds, and Bisping picks up a dominant, if not entertaining decision victory.

Bisping via Unanimous Decision.

BJ "The Prodigy" Penn vs. Jon Fitch
welterweight number one contender match

After a stunning dispatching of Hall of Famer Matt Hughes, Penn looks to get another shot at 170 pound gold by handing Fitch only his second loss in his stint in the UFC. That in and of itself is a tall order, because Fitch hasn't been stopped in over eight years, and not even pound for pound great Georges St. Pierre could finish him. Fitch is a blue collar kind of a fighter. He doesn't possess otherworldly athletic talent, but he works so hard at getting better, and has the heart of a champion. Penn, is good at what he does because he is one of the most physically gifted fighters of all time, and has no shortage of desire to win, most of the time. Penn will occasionally get bored, and lack motivation. When this happens, as was apparent against Frankie Edgar, Penn is lackluster, and doesn't have the fire that made him only the second fighter in UFC history to win championship gold in two different weight classes. Against Hughes, he had that desire to win back, and easily dispatched the former champ in 21 seconds. This fight all comes down to which version of Penn we get. If we get the hungry, dedicated Penn, Fitch is in trouble. If we get the Penn that lost his last two fights at 155, the Hawaiian is in for a long night of getting mangled by the UFC's meat grinder.

Fitch is a tall rangy welterweight, and fairly large for 170 pounds. He has a stifling top game, that is all about wearing opponents down, and using his fantastic gas tank to just outlast everyone. His last eight fights have gone to decision, and he's only lost one of them.He was in a bit of trouble late in the third round against Mike Pierce, and Penn may look to capitalize on that bit of info. If BJ can get in Fitch's face early, and really land some solid shots, he may be able to get a stoppage win. Going for a choke, or submission may be a bad idea, because Fitch has been in some very tight spots, but managed to get out of them, and then turn the tide. Penn's bjj prowess is well known, as his ability to avoid big shots on the feet and land devastating strikes of his own. He will need to have his take down defense and cardio running at top capacity, because Fitch will not want to stand and trade with Penn, and is a take down machine. This is going to be a really interesting fight, and with the next title shot on the line, it makes the W at the end that much more desirable.

If Fitch can get through the vaunted Penn take down defense early enough, he will more than likely ride out a stifling, dominant decision. If Penn has that fire he showed against Hughes, and can thwart the numerous Fitch take downs, he could easily stop this fight early. I expect Fitch to trade a little with Penn, before he starts trying to get the fight to the mat. Even if he does, Penn, is savvy enough to escape back to his feet, and keep the fight where he wants it to. The thing is, it's not the first take down he has to worry about, but the next four or five. The fact that it's a three round fight may actually help Penn, because he has the ability to stifle Fitch, even if he does get taken down, and score solid points on the feet, or even threaten with submissions from his back. I think it's an exciting fight, back and forth all the way to the horn, with Fitch pulling out a gutsy split decision, and getting another shot at the 170 pound strap.

Fitch via Split Decision