UFC 126 preview

So it's going up a bit late, and it's once again a short version, but here are my picks for tonight's pretty good looking card for UFC 126.

Miguel Torres vs. Antonio Banuelos
bantamweight

Former 135 pound champ Torres looks to rack up back to back wins for the first time in almost two years against the very game, but slightly overmatched Banuelos. Torres has nearly twice the career fights of Banuelos, and possesses a massive reach advantage. Expect Torres to stalk Banuelos from the opening of the fight, cutting off the cage and using his reach to pick the shorter fighter apart. Banuelos is tough, but is unlikely to mount anything that will really threaten Torres, who will most likely pull out a late submission, or a one sided decision win. My money is on the latter.

Torres via Unanimous Decision

Jake Ellenberger vs. Carlos Eduardo "Ta Danado" Rocha
welterweight

Originally set to fight Jon Fitch, Ellenberger now finds himself with a different opponent in Rocha. Much like Fitch, Ellenberger uses a stifling wrestling game to wear his opponents out, but has a very solid striking base to back it up. Rocha is a bjj student, but hasn't faced a whole lot of top notch opponent, and like many Brazilian fighters, his wrestling defense is suspect. Ellenberger will push this fight's pace and keep heavy pressure on "Ta Danado". As long as he doesn't give Rocha a chance to catch him with a sub, Ellenberger should win a fairly lopsided decision, if he doesn't get a stoppage late in the second or early in the third.

Ellenberger via Unanimous Decision

Ryan "Darth" Bader vs Jon "Bones" Jones
light heavyweight

A match up between two highly touted prospects, one undefeated, and one basically the same. This should be a very tough fight for both men. Jones is a massive light heavyweight, and may not be long for this division, but until he decides to make that leap into the heavyweight division, he'll continue to apply his stunning array of skills to the 205 pounders in his way. Bader is a top notch wrestler with nasty power in his fists. He'll need to stay light on his feet though, because Jones has been tearing through tough wrestlers as of late, in his dismantling of Vladimir Matuyshenko, and DQ loss to Matt Hamil. Bader will need to watch his distance, as Jones will enjoy a massive reach advantage, but Bader has shown a stout chin, and Jones isn't a very technical striker, preferring the more exotic spinning back elbows, hook kicks, and spinning back kicks to the more traditional striking fare employed by most fighters. If Bader can get this fight to the ground, he has a chance, but only because we have yet to see what Jones is like off his back. With Greg Jackson in his corner, you can bet his ground game is no joke. I think Jones will survive an early scare, and weather the storm early, on his way to a late second round TKO as Bader's cardio runs out on him. If not for the main event, this would be my pick for fight of the night.

Jones via TKO, Rd. 2

Forrest Griffin vs. Rich "Ace" Franklin
light heavyweight

Griffin returns to the Octagon for the first time in over a year, and Franklin looks to continue his run after moving up to the 205 pound class. Both men are tough, well rounded fighters, and this should prove to be an exciting bout, with the winner getting a bit closer to title contention. Franklin is the more technical striker of the two, and perhaps the more skilled grappler as well. Griffin is much larger, and is not afraid to wade in there and slug it out with anyone. His striking, while not as clean as Franklin's, is still very crisp, and he has cardio to back up all his skills in spades. With both men being so evenly matched, I honestly think it comes down to size and strength. Griffin has the ability to dictate the pacing of the fight, and will likely be able to stay out of harms way for the majority of the fight. Expect him to use jabs and leg kicks to score early, and despite a late surge by Franklin, Griffin will pull out a close split decision.

Griffin via Split Decision

MIDDLEWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP
Champion: Anderson "The Spider" Silva vs. Vitor "The Phenom" Belfort

Could Silva's run as middleweight champ and pound for pound king possibly come to an end tonight? It could, but don't bank on it. Belfort is perhaps the toughest challenge he's faced to date, and coming off his last fight where he pulled a submission victory out of what was certainly going to be a decision loss to Chael Sonnen, he may be looking to prove that he is not quite done yet. Belfort hasn't fought since he knocked out Rich Franklin in the first round over a year ago. He was scheduled to face Silva, but then a shoulder injury knocked him out, and Sonnen replaced him. Belfort is three years younger than Silva, and could be the most dangerous striker he's faced. Silva has the reach by a bit, and is much more of a threat should this fight go to the mat, which I highly doubt it will. Belfort will come out cautiously, and there will be a bit of a feeling out process for the first minute or two before they start to exchange. Belfort will want to make this more of a brawl, while Silva will be trying to stay on the outside and pick Belfort apart with his precision striking. If this fight makes it into the championship rounds I'll be shocked. I see Silva putting Belfort down early in the third round, after surviving an early onslaught. This should be a heck of a fight, and is my pick for Fight of the Night.

Silva via TKO, Rd. 3