UFC 123

Well, I gotta put in a better showing than last week, but once again being an adult and having very little free time rears it's ugly head, so I'm going to do my best. We've got a good card here, full of up and comers, rising stars, and the cream of the crop. How will it all play out? Let's see what this poor schmuck thinks!

Phil "Mr. Wonderful" Davis vs. Tim "The Barbarian" Boetsch
light heavyweight

If we were just going off of nicknames, it would be a fantastic match. Luckily, we have a seasoned veteran in Boetsch, and surging MMA neophyte in Davis, to make it more than that. After a stellar wrestling career at Penn State, Davis has transitioned into MMA perfectly so far. Running his record to 7-0 and winning his first three fights in the UFC, he looks to face his biggest test so far in the super durable Boetsch, who won his first match back in the UFC after a pedestrian 2-2 record in his first tour of duty with the organization. Both fighters have a strong wrestling background, but Davis has a greater skillset on the ground, while Boetsch seems to have the heavier strikes. Who can impose their will more readily, and who's wrestling will win out? It's going to be a tough fight, but should be a goodie.

It all comes down to who can get the fight where they want to. Davis is taller, has better reach, and if he stays out of the clinch, should be able to execute whatever gameplan he wants. Boetsch needs to get in close, and use elbows and knees to try and negate the reach advantage Davis has. Boetsch also likes to use the teep, or push kick, to keep opponents from pressuring too much, so look for that if he can't execute the clinch to his liking. If this fight gets to the ground, which I suspect it will, Davis has the smoother, more fluid grappling game, and has a blue belt in bjj, so he should be able to dictate how the fight progresses in the grappling realm a bit more than Boetsch.

While Boetsch is tough, this fight is Davis' to win, and should be able to keep his distance on the feet with his reach, and even if he gets taken down, should be able to out grapple "The Barbarian", and either snatch a submission late, or earn a nod from the judges after a tough three rounds. I suspect the latter, and Davis will continue his ascent towards the top of the light heavyweight division.

Davis via Unanimous Decision


Gerald "Hurricane" Harris vs. Maiquel Jose "Big Rig" Falcao Goncalves
middleweight

In what should be a live action rock 'em sock 'em robots match, Harris and Goncalves will lock horns and try to beat the holy bejebus out of each other. Harris is a former college wrestler with solid stand up, and big power. Goncalves is a new comer to the UFC, but boasts a stunning 25-3 record. Goncalves seems to be more of a stand up fighter than most Brazilians, cut from a similar cloth as Wanderlei Silva, or Anderson Silva, and of his 25 wins 21 have come in the form of KO or TKO. Their size seems comparable in this fight, but we'll see what kind of game plan Harris brings, if the stand up doesn't go to his liking.

Harris is well rounded, and is just as happy to bring the leather on the feet, as he is to use his wrestling to get the fight to the ground and grind opponents out. Goncalves seems happier to bully on the feet, throwing a barrage of punches, kicks, and knees, until his opponent wilts under the pressure. I admittedly do not know much about the newcomer, and had a hard time finding much information about him, but from what little I gleaned from the interwebs, he is one tough hombre, who is going to bring the fight to Harris in a big way.

Expect some feeling out early by Harris, while Goncalves will undoubtedly try to kick things off by bringing aggression early. Harris will fall back on his wrestling if he gets uncomfortable, and if Goncalves has anything less than stellar conditioning, he could be in trouble if he doesn't finish early. Harris will withstand an early onslaught, and early in the third, get the stoppage win, in what should be a fairly exciting fight.

Harris via TKO, Rd. 3


George Sotiropoulos vs Joe "J-Lau" Lauzon
lightweight

With Sotiropoulos being hailed as the next challenger to the throne, and Lauzon rapidly ascending to the heights hinted at after bursting onto the scene in dramatic fashion by knocking out Jens Pulver in his UFC debut, this fight has two of the most promising fighters in the UFCs light weight division locking horns for a chance to fight for the 155 pound strap. Sotiropoulos brings an amazingly well rounded skill set, to try and overwhelm the highly unpredictable style Lauzon likes to utilize.


Sotiropoulos is a much more technically proficient striker, and is a black belt in bjj. He has emerged as one of the top contenders for the lightweight championship, since he dropped down to 155 after fighting at 170 during his stint on The Ultimate Fighter, and his first two UFC bouts. His striking could prove problematic for Lauzon, as the Bostonian has had problems with fighters possessing longer reach and solid boxing skills. Sotiropoulos will need to keep his distance standing, and utilize his strong clinch game to initiate takedowns. The Aussie also needs to be wary of dropping his hands, which nearly cost him towards the end of his decision win over Kurt Pellegrino.

Despite his youth, Lauzon actually has more professional fights than Sotiropoulos, and has been fighting in the UFC since he was 22 years old. Despite the perception that he was brought in to lose to Jens Pulver in Pulver's first fight back in the UFC in quite some time, Lauzon promptly knocked Pulver out inside of one minute. Since then, Lauzon has compiled a 5-2 record in the UFC, and added 6 "*blank* of the Night" awards to his ledger. A skilled grappler holding the rank of purple belt in bjj, Lauzon is an aggressive fighter, always looking to finish his opponent, though sometimes to his detriment. Against Sotiropoulos, he will need to temper his aggression with patience, and also have to have improved his conditioning. In his decision loss to Sam Stout, Lauzon nearly had a couple submissions early, but expended so much energy, that it left him exhausted, and Stout picked him apart from there on. For Lauzon to have a chance, he will need to be particular about picking his spots, because Sotiropoulos isn't the kind of fighter who fails to capitalize on mistakes.

My personal pick for Fight of the Night, this should be a heck of a throwdown. Sotiroploulos will engage on the feet, and prevent any take downs, but Lauzon will make it a tough fight, and isn't likely to make the same mistakes he did against Stout. This very well could turn into a ground fight, with both men being very skilled grapplers, but I give Sotiroploulos the edge in the ground game as well as on the feet. Lauzon may be able to snatch a submission off his back, or catch the Aussie with a counter punch, but I expect Sotiropoulos to be just too much for the New England native, and despite a furious rally late, Sotiropoulos will pull out the unanimous decision.

Sotiropoulos via Unanimous Decision

Matt Hughes vs BJ "The Prodigy" Penn
welterweight

A year ago, these fighters were at opposing ends of the fighter spectrum, compared to today. BJ was on top of the world as the most dominant lightweight in the world, and Hughes was looking to fight big names, but had become a name nobody mentioned in respect to a title shot. In the last year, Hughes has convincingly stopped two highly respected bjj black belts, including an impressive choking unconscious of Ricardo Almeida. Conversely, Penn has lost two fights in a row to the now king of lightweights, Frankie Edgar. Seemingly at a crossroads, Penn has opted to make the shift back up to welterweight and finish the trilogy of fights with Hughes that started nearly seven years ago.

In 2004, Hughes was king of 170 pounds. With brutal strength, and imposing ground and pound, nobody had really come close to defeating him. Enter Penn, a lightweight moving up in weight, that few outside of the hardcore fan even gave a chance. Penn completely outclassed Hughes on the feet, and after a scramble on the ground, Penn took his back, and choked him out with 20 seconds to go in the first round. To say this was a shocking upset would be an understatement. Even more unbelievably, Penn left the UFC to fight overseas, ostensibly to challenge himself in any arena possible. He even fought a heavyweight bout against former UFC light heavyweight champ, Lyoto Machida, losing a unanimous decision. The UFC wouldn't see him for over two years.

Fast forward those two years, Penn has fought all around the world, and against a variety of opponents, Hughes racked up five straight wins, and regained the welterweight belt. Set to rematch Georges St. Pierre, Penn was a late replacement due to an injury suffered by GSP, and Penn was intent on regaining the belt he never lost. While the fight started similarly to the first, Hughes started to wear out Penn, and after surviving a triangle/armbar at the end of the second round, the third started with Hughes looking much fresher, and Penn looking exhausted. After tagging the Hawaiian with several punches, Hughes took Penn down, and proceeded to pummel him until the referee called a stop to the fight.

Four years later, both men stand ready for the rubber match, and it comes down to the intangibles. Will Hughes be able to impose his will and take Penn down? Will BJ be able to go hard for three rounds if need be? Is Penn's head even in the fight game after suffering two consecutive losses for just the second time in his career? Is the resurgence of Hughes for real? I'm going with my gut, and ignoring my head and picking Penn. Hughes has looked great, but he's still the same fighter he's always been, while Penn is a much more well rounded fighter, a better striker, and better grappler. There will be some feeling out, but ultimately Penn will start to land cleaner shots, and force Hughes to make a mistake, ending with Hughes tapping out, and Penn ending his losing streak.

Penn via submission, (rear naked choke) Rd. 1


Quinton "Rampage" Jackson vs. Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida
light heavyweight

In what many thought would be a championship fight when it happened, Machida and Jackson clash with both fighters coming off losses, and looking to re-establish themselves in the 205 title picture. Machida is looking to rebound from his first career loss, losing the light heavyweight strap in a rematch with Mauricio Rua, and Jackson is trying to get the bad taste out of his mouth after losing a unanimous decision to former champ Rashad Evans. With both men looking to prove they should be next in lone for a shot at the champ, this should be a hell of a scrap.

Machida got to the top of the 205 pound heap by being nearly impossible to hit, and bringing a varied skill set to bear including punches and kicks from odd angles, trips and sweeps to get take downs, and a vastly underrated submission game. After winning his first three UFC fights in somewhat pedestrian fashion, he picked up some steam and started finishing fights. three of his next five to be exact, with the two decisions being fairly exciting as well. Against Jackson, he will need to regain that elusiveness, because despite a somewhat cartoonish persona, Jackson has some extremely technical skills, and packs some of the heaviest hands in the light heavyweight division. He'll need to stick and move, and attack with leg kicks a la Forrest Griffin, if he hopes to wear out "Rampage" and move in for the kill.

Jackson needs this win, but for that to happen, he is going to need to get inside Machida's reach, stand firm in the pocket, and use quick, snapping combos, utilizing his nasty hooks and uppercuts to test the Brazilian's now suspect chin. With strong wrestling, and great balance in defending take downs, Jackson will more than likely not need to worry about the fight going to the ground, but should be well equipped to prevent that from happening if need be. Jackson will also need to be patient, and not try to walk Machida down too much, because with his excellent counter punching, Machida waits for opponents to do just that, and then turns on the pressure. Never afraid to take a punch to give two, Jackson will definitely need to use his strength and strong chin to suck Machida into standing in the pocket and trading, where Jackson is extremely dangerous. If he can do that, it will be a short night for Machida.

This fight comes down to whether or not Jackson has the patience to pick his spots, and not try and bullrush Machida. No shabby counter puncher in his own right, if Jackson can bait Machida into over committing, he may be able to give him a dose of his own medicine, but Machida is too smart for that, and will likely pick his shots, and frustrate Jackson for most of the fight, until "Rampage" escapes late in the fight, and puts a scare into Machida fans everywhere, but will fall just a bit short. Machida gets a close, but unanimous decision here, and Jackson will be left pondering his next move.

Machida via Unanimous Decision.