This Saturday, we see the third title defense in what has become a very impressive MMA career for Brock Lesnar, as he takes on undefeated upstart, Cain Velasquez. In what could arguably be the best fight card of the year, there is a main card full of important fights, and each one should be a close, hard fought bout. So, without further ado, let's get this going!
Gabriel "Napao" Gonzaga vs. Brendan "The Hybrid" Schaub
heavyweight
This is a fight that is essentially to gauge where Schaub is at in his MMA career. If he is going to become a bona fide heavyweight contender, he needs to prove he can hang with the heavy hitters, and the grapplers. Fortunately, Gonzaga qualifies as both, but for "Napao to take this fight, he'd better rely on his stellar bjj, because going toe to toe with "The Hybrid", could make for a short night.
Schaub has shown that he can keep the fight where it benefits him, but can get a little lazy with his defense, as proven when Roy Nelson sent him to the mat courtesy of a monster right hand. Since that loss, Schaub has demonstrated significantly stronger stand up on both offense, and defense. Where we'll really find out how much his game has improved, is how he can handle the smothering top game of Gonzaga, if of course, the Brazilian decides to take the fight to the ground.
Gonzaga is a world class grappler, and submission artist, but since the highlight reel KO of Mirko Cro Cop, he seems to have fallen in love with his hands. This has won him some fights, and it has cost him some. Gonzaga does have nasty power in his hands, and feet for that matter, but his strength remains in his heavy top control, brutal ground and pound, and world class submission skills. If he gets into trouble, Gonzaga is going to need to find a way to get the fight to the mat, and work from there. If Schaub hasn't improved his take down defense, it could be a long night.
This fight almost isn't about skills, but instead about which Gonzaga shows up. If it's the fighter who stuck with taking his opponent down, and grinding them out, Schaub is in trouble. Unfortunately, Gonzaga like to test his hands, and though he does have solid skills in that area, he has a suspect chin, and tends to throw the gameplan out the window when things start going in the wrong direction. Schaub is a young, beast of a fighter, who only has up to go, and though it will be a tough fight, "The Hybrid" will find a way to force the referee to stop the fight early in the second round.
Schaub via TKO, Rd. 2
Tito "The Huntington Beach Bad Boy" Ortiz vs Matt "The Hammer" Hamil
light heavyweight
Ortiz hasn't had a win in the Octagon in over four years, and that was the third of three wins over a decidedly past his peak Ken Shamrock. Though they've mostly been close, Ortiz has lost three of his last four bouts, and the lone fight that wasn't was a draw against Rashad Evans. Ortiz is a few months shy of turning 36, and is working on a surgically repaired neck and back. All this adds up to a very daunting task, especially when you add Matt Hamil to the mix, who doesn't have the littany of injuries that Ortiz does, and has shown more facets to his game than Ortiz in recent years. Hamil is looking to pass his former mentor, and Ortiz is trying to prove that the old dog can learn a new trick or two.
Hamil has showed marked improvement in his stand up since his stint on season three of TUF, and as evidenced by his very close majority decision victory over Keith Jardine, can stick to a gameplan, and force another fighter to fight his style, and make it a close quarters brawl. Ortiz likes to utilize his wrestling, and drag fights into the deep waters where his conditioning, wrestling, and ground and pound can turn the tide towards his favor. The problem here, is that Hamil is no slouch in the wrestling department, and is perhaps the more well rounded, and perhaps flat out better striker. Ortiz has very stiff striking, and though his stand up defense is extremely tight, when you put the pressure on him, it's only a matter of time before it weakens, and he shoots for a takedown. Against most fighters that would get him out of trouble, but against Hamil, it's a recipe for a sprawl and restart on the feet, or worse, a massive knee to the head, and an early exit from the Octagon. Anywhere this fight goes, it just doesn't seem to favor Ortiz.
Hamil will push the pace early, and make Ortiz have to face some early adversity. Ortiz may respond by trying to get this fight to the ground ala Jon Jones and work some of the ground and pound that Ortiz is known for, but with the takedown defense of Hamil, and the fact that most of his explosiveness has left him, Ortiz will be hard pressed to get the fight where he wants it. This is Hamil's fight to win, and he should be able to dictate pacing, and when and how the fight goes to the floor. Hamil will get the win here, in a tight, but decisive nod from the judges.
Hamil via Unanimous Decision.
Paulo Thiago vs. Diego "Nightmare" Sanchez
welterweight
A Brazilian special forces member, against one of the most mentally sturdy fighters in the UFC. This is going to be a heck of a fight, and the outcome largely rests on what kind of fighter Thiago thinks he is. We know what Sanchez brings to the fight, strong wrestling, solid grappling and jiu jitsu, and an ever improving striking game. Thiago is bigger, stronger, and the more refined in jiu jitsu, but he seems to be lacking in the self confidence that Sanchez has in spades. For 'Nightmare" to win, he's going to need to draw on that borderline arrogance, because with two fights in a row already under his belt, he can ill afford a third
After a run at the lightweight title that fell just short, Sanchez returned to the welterweight division for the first time in over three years, only to be upset by underdog John Hathaway. Sanchez will need to prove that the return to 170 pounds was a solid decision, and focus on what got him to where he is. An outstanding wrestling, and ground game got him several wins early in his career, but when he ran into back to back losses against two top wrestlers, he switched things up a bit, and started to improve his stand up. Where will he need to take this to beat Thiago? He may want to work his ground and pound, and avoid the heavy hands of the Brazilian. Of course, Thiago is no slouch on the ground.
Thiago stormed into the UFC with an astonishing first round KO of top contender Josh Koscheck, and though he has since amassed a pedestrian 2-2 record, he still has yet to be KO'd or submitted in his MMA career. Thiago throws heavy hands, and has a nasty uppercut, and though his wrestling is not exactly stellar, when he does get the fight to the ground, he is slick, and capable of finishing almost anyone. Where he struggles on the ground is off his back, and if Sanchez can impose his will, and stay on top, Thiago could struggle. If Thiago is smart, he will do everything he can to shrug off the takedowns, and keep the fight standing, where he can utilize his slight reach advantage, and power to dictate the pace of the fight.
Has Sanchez gotten his body back to where it needs to be for 170 pounds after a year plus at 155? We'll see. Thiago has had trouble with fighter that can sink a solid double leg takedown, and Sanchez is more than capable of getting the fight to the ground, but with the knowledge that he has to improve on his takedown defense, Thiago should be more than ready to fight a three round war stuffing takedowns, and landing power shots. This fight is going to be razor close, and though my head says Thiago, my gut says Sanchez, who takes this fight via split decision, and for some reason, I see controversy in our future regarding this bout. Should still be a heck of a fight though.
Sanchez via Split Decision
Jake Shields vs Martin "Hitman" Kampmann
welterweight
Shields makes his long awaited UFC debut, and with one win, he could be catapulted to a title shot against the winner of Josh Koscheck-Georges St. Pierre, but a tough match up against Kampmann has to be the first priority, because looking past the Dane is a good way to get pummeled for 15 minutes straight. If Shields is going to win this fight, he's going to need to get this fight where he is comfortable, and avoid as much of Kampmann's extremely dynamic striking as possible. Kampmann is going to want to turn this bout into a kickboxing match, and though he is vastly underrated on the ground, avoid grappling when at all possible.
Shields has been, without a doubt, the best welterweight on the planet, not in the UFC for quite some time now. With a gaudy win-loss record, and a winning streak that dates back to 2004, Shields is the heavy favorite here. While his striking is always improving, it's no secret that he wants to get this fight to the ground, and work submissions and ground and pound. With a host of jiu jitsu and grappling credentials to his name, Shields is a monster to deal with on the ground, and when he gets top control, his opponent is in for a long night of fighting off submissions attempts, and getting punched and elbowed the whole time as well. Kampmann is a very solid wrestler, and grappler, but will it be enough to fend off the constant pressure of Shields?
After a solid start to his UFC career at middleweight, Kampmann decided to drop to welterweight, and has flourished since. Despite a setback loss to Paul Daley, "Hitman" has rattled off consecutive wins, including a thorough drubbing of Paulo Thiago, that many thought Thiago was the favorite to win. A very solid wrestler that trains out of Extreme Couture, Kampmann has world class kickboxing skills, and is more than comfortable if the fight goes to the ground, as was evidenced by his several near submissions of bjj black belt Thiago. While Kampmann may be able to withstand the barrage of strikes and submissions attempts on the ground that Shields will throw at him, he undoubtably wants to keep this fight standing, and throw the kitchen sink at Shields and keep him off balance as much as he can.
While it's not quite a number one contender match (Shields will get a crack at the Koscheck-St. Pierre victor if he wins, no such statement has been made concerning a Kampmann win), this scrap has all the makings of a Fight of the Year candidate. Shields is coming in with a lot of deserved fan fare, and Kampmann is looking to prove that he is not someone to be taken lightly. Both men are likely to be cautious to begin, and expect Shields to be a bit more aggressive on the feet, as Kampmann may be wary of being taken down. In his last fight against Dan Henderson, Shields took him down at will, and controlled the former Olympian for five straight rounds. Kampmann will try to exploit openings, and pick his shots from the feet, until he has to defend the inevitable takedown attempt. If Kampmann can keep this fight standing, it's his fight to win, but even if the fight goes to the ground, he's far from helpless. I think Kampmann will frustrate Shields with slick footwork and head movement, and has just enough ground acumen to keep the submissions and ground and pound of Shields at bay. This fight goes the distance, and though close, will be a clear cut victory for Kampmann.
Kampmann via Unanimous Decision
UFC HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP
(Champ) Brock Lesnar vs. Cain Velasquez
After an impressive come from behind win over Shane Carwin, Lesnar is looking to put a stamp on his status as the number one heavyweight in the world of MMA. In Velasquez, he is facing an opponent that has never been beaten, and only been taken past the second round once. Velasquez only had two professional fights before he made his UFC debut, because his trainers couldn't find anyone willing to fight him. Lesnar has only tasted defeat once, and has since avenged that loss to Frank Mir with a brutal TKO victory at UFC 100 in July of '09. Lesnar keeps getting better every time we see him in the Octagon, which is scary, considering the already formidable physical gifts he possesses. This fight is going to come down to heart, will, and surpisingly enough, cardio.
In Velasquez, there is a heavyweight that moves with a fluidity and grace of a much smaller man, but when he lands his strikes, it's with the force of a sledgehammer. Velasquez is a solid stand up fighter, who can take a punch or two, as evidenced by his fight with top tier striker, Cheick Kongo. Velasquez has the ability to take a solid punch, and rely on his wrestling to get him out of harms way. Unfortunately, against Lesnar, that will not be as easily achieved. Velasquez is going to need to utilize his quick footwork, and head movement to avoid the meteorites Lesnar calls fists, and exploit Lesnar's sub par striking defense. If Velasquez is patient, picks his spots, and can avoid being taken down by Lesnar, this fight could be his to win.
Lesnar is the much bigger, and stronger fighter, and the rub for Velasquez is, Lesnar might actually be a quicker, and more agile fighter to boot! For a man that will probably tip the scales around 275-280 come fight night, Lesnar can keep it going for quite a long time, and moves like a fighter 100 pounds lighter. Where he'll need to have improved, is in his striking defense. Against Carwin, he was tagged repeatedly, and dropped to the ground, where by sheer force of will, and Carwin running out of gas, he survived until the end of the round. In Velasquez, there is little chance he will face the same fortunes, and will need to have gotten better in the footwork, and head movement department, or he could be getting his lights put out quite early on.
Both men are big and quick, both hit like pre-Crisis Superman, and both have the cardio to keep the fight going as long as they like. Velasquez has the more refined stand up, but Lesnar has the better wrestling pedigree. If Lesnar wants to take this fight down to the ground, he should have no problem doing so, and if that happens, it's game over. Velasquez my put Lesnar in a sticky situation early on with punches and maybe kicks, but with a head like concrete, Lesnar will weather the storm, and come out blazing in the second round, snag a takedown, and proceed to Donkey Kong Velasquez into goo. A heck of a fight, and the prize? Junior Dos Santos waiting for Lesnar after he finishes Velasquez, mid way through the second round.
Lesnar via TKO, Rd. 2
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