UFC 119

Normally I like this previews to be long winded, and sometimes I even throw a little of what I like to call "insightful perspective". Being a bit short on personal time this week, it's going to have to be short, and sweet, and still probably quite long.

Here we go....

Melvin "The Young Assassin" Guillard vs. Jeremy "Lil' Heathen" Stephens
lightweight

I will say this much, this fight will most likely be fight of the night. Both fighters like to stand there and trade punches with their opponents, and both guys hit like an enraged gorilla. Normally this would mean someone is going to sleep early, but with the stout chins of both fighters, this promises to be an all out war.

Stephens has been up and down in his MMA career, but has provided the UFC with some fantastic highlights so far. Stephens is becoming more than just the brawler he was when he first entered the UFC. He now utilizes his wrestling to get him out of bad spots, and is much more judicious about his striking, as evidenced by his solid performance against Sam Stout last May. All this considered, he's only 24, and has many years ahead of him, but he's becoming quite the well rounded fighter. Submission defense is a bit worrisome, but against Guillard, it's probably not much of a concern.

Guillard has an impressive highlight reel of his own, and since joining Greg Jacksons gym, has really started to become a dangerously well rounded fighter. With blinding speed, and a penchant for dropping opponents with strikes to the body (ouch) Guillard is finally starting to build off the hype he generated when he competed on TUF. An enormous lightweight, he's been susceptible to submissions on the ground, much like Stephens, but his defense is getting better, and against Stephens, it's probabl not much of a concern, as against someone like Nate Diaz.

I said it before, and I stand by it, this will be Fight of the Night. It may even go the distance, which if it does, I think Stephens gets the nod. His wrestling is better, and he has never been KO'd. For that matter neither has Guillard, but with two tough guys just going toe to toe, and being evenly matched, the slight grappling advantage lies with Stephens, and after three crazy rounds, he gets the judges nod, if only barely.

Stephens via Split Decision.

Sean "The Muscle Shark" vs. Evan Dunham
lightweight

After a 16 month layoff, Sean Sherk returns to the UFC. Several injuries have derailed fights, but now healthy, Sherk is ready to begin his ascension back to the top of the lightweight division. He'll have to do it against a new up and comer in Dunham, who has been nothing short of spectacular in his first four fights in the octagon, winning them all.

Sherk is one of the most dangerous wrestlers, and ground and pound fighters at 155, but in his last fight against current champ Frankie Edgar, he looked to demonstrate his striking skills, and completely outclassed. If he tries that against the significantly longer limbed Dunham, it could prove to be another long night. If he manages to get this fight to the ground, something wrestling standouts Tyson Griffin and Efrain Excudero had difficulty doing, he still has to contend with the submission ability of Dunham, which is also strong. All signs point to Sherk having a rough go with Dunham this Saturday.

Dunham is 28, nearly ten years the junior of Sherk, and has been on a tear in his UFC career. With strong wrestling, solid striking, and a surprisingly stout ground game, he's rapidly pushing his way to the top of the lightweight division, and with a win over Sherk, he could find himself one fight away from getting that chance. He cannot look past Sherk though. "The Muscle Shark" is always in fantastic shape, and can push the pace for the entire fight. Despite Sherk's short stature, he still has crisp, powerful strikes, and if he gets you on the ground, has smothering top control, with nasty ground and pound. Dunham may struggle in getting Sherk to the ground, and will most likely try his luck on the feet, using his length to keep Sherk at bay. If Dunham cannot stuff the takedown, he could be in for a long night of getting pounded.

Dunham looks like the real deal, and Sherk has a lot of factors going against him in this fight. Age, ring rust, reach, and against someone as hungry as Dunham, it's just going to be too much to overcome. Dunham will beat Sherk in every aspect of the fight for three straight rounds, and get his hands raised in a very lopsided decision victory.

Dunham via Unanimous Decision

Chris "Lights Out" Lytle vs. Matt "The Terror" Serra
welterweight

In a rematch of the 170 pound finale of the fourth season of TUF, we are guaranteed to have a more exciting fight. Serra won a very close split decision, that many felt Lytle deserved the victory, and with a shot at then and current welterweight champ Georges St. Pierre, both men were very cautious, and did their best to avoid mistakes. In this fight, with a little less at stake, we're most likely going to see a great matchup with a terrific grappler and underrated striker in Serra, against a terrific striker and underrated grappler in Lytle.

Lets get one thing out of the way immediately, the chances of this fight going the distance are pretty high. Both men have durable chins, and better than average submission defense. Neither fighter has ever been submitted, and between the nearly 70 combined fights they've logged, there have been only four total losses by KO or TKO. They're tough, talented, and looking to reassert themselves in the welterweight division.

It all comes down to who can impose their will on the other, and who can keep their head when the fight plan goes out the window. Lytle needs to use his superior boxing to take advantage of his reach, and keep Serra at a distance. Mixing his punches with kicks will keep Serra off balance, and force the Long Island native to try and take the fight to the mat. Once it gets there, which it will because Serra is too determined, and too good a grappler to not score at least a takedown or two, it will be in Lytle's best interest to get back to standing as quickly as possible. Serra has a stifling top game, and is always looking to ground and pound, or snag a submission. This fight hinges on how long Serra stays on top in those situations, and how much damage he can cause from the top. If Lytle stays out of trouble on the ground, it's his fight to win. He has the better boxing, and is more than comfortable eating a few shots to counter with his own, and he's got the chin to take a few of Serra's wild haymakers. After three rounds of back and forth, Lytle gets a well deserved victory, and if not for Guillard-Stephens, probably the fight of the night.

Lytle via Unanimous Decision.

Antonio Rogerio "Minotoro" Nogueira vs. Ryan "Darth" Bader
lightheavyweight

After scoring a nasty knockout of seasoned vet Keith Jardine, Bader continues to get a higher caliber opponent as he faces off with the man affectionately known as "Lil Nog". A win against Nogueira could catapult Bader into a position to make a run at the title, whereas Nogueira needs to prove that his extremely controversial split decision victory over Jason Brilz, was a combination of a lot of odd flukes, that wont happen again.

Bader is a powerhouse wrestler, with a right hand Dan Henderson would be proud of. No longer content to rely strictly on wrestling and ground and pound, Bader has also developed a solid, simple striking skill set. Against a fighter like Nogueira, he may want to get back to his roots, considering the troubles Brilz gave Nogueira with his own wrestling, and top control. Even if the fight goes to the ground with Bader on top, Nogueira is a crafty grappler, more than capable of snaring a wayward limb if Bader isn't careful. "Darth" has a lot going for him heading into this fight, but he must take caution in all areas.

Nogueira is an extremely talented boxer, and very accomplished grappler as well. In his very close win over Brilz, who was a late replacement for Forrest Griffin, Nogueira had a hard time stopping takedowns, and was nearly choked out. He'll need to be even more wary of the takedown, and the hands of Bader as well. If this were a straight up boxing match, Noguiera would win 99 time out of 100, but adding in the factors of MMA, and you get a much better match.

Nogueira is going to want to keep the fight standing, and as soon as Bader doesn't feel comfortable there, he'll try and take things to the mat. If Nogueira hasn't improved his takedown defense, he'll end up on the bottom, where despite his impressive arsenal of sweeps and submissions, will be hard pressed to mount some offense. I'm thinking Bader is hungrier, and will look to prove he belongs in the upper echelon of light heavyweights. In the early moments of round three, a weary Nogueira will get finished, and handed his first "real" UFC loss.

Bader via TKO, Rd. 3

Frank Mir vs. Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic
heavyweight

Filling in on short notice for the injured Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, Cro Cop brings an entirely different fight style to the octagon than Mir was initially preparing for. Instead of the solid boxer, with a tough chin and great ground skills, Cro Cop possesses devastating power in the standup game, from all limbs, and an underrated ability to avoid damage on the ground, before scrambling back to the feet. Mir will need to be very cautious in the striking department, and when the fight goes to the mat, he had better do everything he can to grab something and twist, because while the cardio of Mir is improving, the last thing you want to do against Cro Cop in the later rounds is hang your hands and catch a kick upside your head.

In the last year, Mir has fought with his weight as low as 245, and looked lean and fast, and as high as 265 with considerably more muscle and power. Both had their ups and downs, and it seems as though he's settled on less power lifting, and not making size and muscle as much of a factor in training. He has knock out power, but his bread and butter is grappling and submissions. If he can get Cro Cop down, his slight size and strength advantage could help end the night in a hurry, but he still has to watch out for the legs and hands of one the most devastating strikers MMA has ever seen.

While Cro Cop is no doubt approaching the twilight of his career, his win over Pat Barry has improved his stock somewhat in the UFCs heavyweight division. A win over Mir will boost it even more. A very patient striker, Cro Cop has quick counter punches and kicks, and makes his opponents come to him. If you over extend yourself, you're getting cracked. If you drop your hands, you're getting cracked. If you get sloppy with your strikes, well, you get the picture. Though not much of a ground or submission fighter, Cro Cop has had some success with avoiding damage on the ground, and eventually getting back to his feet. Mir is going to need to replicate Gabriel Gonzaga's game plan, which involved takedowns to smothering top control, and using brutal ground and pound to wear out Cro Cop. Though not well known for causing damage from the top, Mir has a nasty assortment of submissions he can throw, and then chain together if necessary. How well Cro Cop can defend these will be crucial.

All in all, this should be an entertaining fight, if not a long one. Mir should try and get it to the mat quickly, because even if he can out strike Cro Cop, the Croatian is frighteningly tough, and wont go down easily. Mir will get this fight to the ground though, and when he does, it'll be all but academic. Mir will notch another submission win, late in the first, and start his climb back towards Mt. Lesnar.

Mir via submission (kimura) Rd. 1