UFC 118

Now August starts to wind down the MMA action, but it's going out with a bang! Five very meaningful fights, and a lot of pride on the line. Let's get to it.

Marcus "The Irish Hand Grenade" vs. Nate Diaz

welterweight (170)

This will be the younger Diaz brother's second foray into the deep waters of 170 pounds, and doing so against a veteran like Davis is a tall order. With very clean, crisp boxing, and a solid grappling/submission game, Davis is a tough fight for most welterweights. Diaz is still developing his striking, but has shown flashes of speed and accuracy like his brother, but where he really shines is on the ground. A brown belt in bjj under the world famous Cesar Gracie, Diaz has submitted some of the top bjj fighters in the world, and made it look easy. This fight is going to be a three round war.

A former professional boxer, Davis has been fighting for a very long time, but at 37, some of the wear and tear associated with that career is beginning to show. After back to back losses for the first time in his MMA career, Davis got back on the winning side of things with a TKO victory over Jonathan Goulet. Davis brings tight footwork, and very technical striking to this fight, but against a tough nut like Diaz, he's going to have to step things up in order to get the "W".

After losing three of his last four fights at 155 pounds, Diaz made the decision to move up to 170 pounds, and compete in a weight class where he didn't have to cut as much weight. Despite the fact that almost everyone in MMA cuts nearly 15-20 pounds to make their respective weight classes, he headed into his fight with Rory Markham looking fantastic, and got the TKO victory after dropping Markham with a knee early in the first round. Getting better on the feet every day, Diaz is going to be a handful, especially with his smooth as silk and tight as a beartrap arsenal of submissions.

This fight will be dictated by several factors; 1) Is Diaz comfortable, and competent enough on his feet to want to try and stand with Davis? Sure he has the reach to do so, but is his striking acumen enough to avoid the power and precision of "The Irish Hand Grenade"? 2) If the fight doesn't go his way, can Diaz get the fight to the mat to take advantage of his jiu jitsu prowess? 3) If Diaz does get the fight to the mat, can Davis stay out of trouble, and either counter, or escape all together and get back to his feet? All these things combine to make this an interesting scrap. Davis is the superior striker, but Diaz has made marked improvements, and will use his reach advantage to pepper Davis with jabs, and try to find an opening for a takedown. If Davis can't avoid the fight going to the ground, he may very well be able to fend off the submissions Diaz throws at him, but doing that for three rounds will only end in a decision loss rather than a submission. There's always the chance that one of the fighters catches the other with a punch or kick, but with Diaz's chin being rock solid, and Davis on the wrong side of 35, those odds don't bode well for the Bangor, Maine native. Diaz takes a lopsided decision.

Diaz, via Unanimous decision.

Kenny "Ken-Flo" Florian vs. Gray "The Bully" Maynard
lightweight (155)

For a fight that is officially the winner gets a title shot fight, and being between two fairly level headed fighters, this is shaping up to be an intense battle. Florian is making his semi regular attempt at another title shot, while Maynard is seeking to prove that he deserves a shot at the champ, especially since the man currently holding the 155 pound strap, is a fighter whose only loss is to "The Bully", Frankie Edgar. So who is more motivated, the man desperately trying to prove he is the best 155 pounder in the world, or the man who holds a win over the current champ and is looking to prove it was no fluke?

In every fight we see him in, Florian is a better version of the one we saw prior. He has great cardio, pinpoint accuracy in his strikes, vastly improved wrestling, and some of the smoothest groundwork you'll see in his weight class. So why isn't he a champion yet? Something in Florian seizes up during a title shot, and his gameplan goes out the window. Against Sean Sherk, he looked lost, with no answer for Sherk's takedowns, or heavy top control. That is most likely a factor of inexperience, but three years later with 14 pro fights under his belt, he spends 3 rounds trying to get BJ Penn to the mat, only to fail and get choked out in the fourth. Can he prove that he has the mental toughness to be a champion? The wrestling machine Maynard is looking to make his opinion heard.

"The Bully" is undefeated in the UFC, and in his entire MMA career. A ginormous lightweight, with possibly the best wrestling in the division (sorry Sherk), Maynard is a handful for anyone. Despite showing a decided lack of finishing ability, no one can deny his talent, or the quality opponents he has steamrolled in his domination of the lightweight division. Nate Diaz, Roger Huerta, Rich Clementi, Jim Miller, and the aforementioned lightweight champ, Frankie Edgar. Florian is a whole new type of opponent, though. With nasty elbows from everywhere, and possibly the most well rounded fighter Maynard has fought, "Ken-Flo" is the prototype for a fighter that could hand Maynard his first loss.

In the striking department, Maynard is getting better every day, but Florian is leaps and bounds better in boxing, and especially muy thai. Maynard is the better wrestler, but Florian has some surprisingly adroit takedown defense, and even if Maynard gets him down, Florian is a bjj black belt who is just as solid off his back, as he is from top control. So where does that leave the outcome? Squarely in Florian's hands. Barring a lucky punch from "The Bully", Florian will have his way on the feet, and even when he gets taken down, will either be active enough from his back to snag a submission or make Maynard stand up, OR he'll be able to force the referee to stand them up, putting the fight right back in his wheelhouse. One area that makes the stakes of this fight interesting, is how each fighter wins. I believe Maynard has more to win with a decisive victory, than Florian does by putting on a striking display and outpointing Maynard. This may force Maynard to push the pace a bit more, which could be good, or bad, but I'm leaning towards bad.

With a fighter as technically sound as Florian, any mistake made, no matter how small, is magnified ten times over. "Ken-Flo" will pick his spots, until late in the third round, when Maynard will make the smallest misstep, leading to Florian either pummeling him unconscious, or grabbing hold of something, and trying to take it with him. I think we'll see the first loss of "The Bully"s career come via taps in the last stanza. This may lead to a rematch of Florian-Penn, but more on that later.

Florian via rear naked choke, Rd. 3.

Demian Maia vs Mario Miranda
middleweight (185)

Maia was originally set to square off with Alan Belcher, on September 15th. However, when Belcher suffered a detached retina, he was forced to withdraw, and Maia was rescheduled to face Miranda this Saturday. Miranda is a bjj black belt, fighting out of Kirkland, of all places, and has lost only once in 11 career fights. While a newcomer to the UFC, he is both a solid striker, and very technical grappler. Maia, may be on a whole other level of submission savvy, and won his first five fights in the UFC via submission, winning submission of the night in four of those bouts. In this one, don't blink, you may miss the outcome.

Seemingly able to apply a submission from out of nowhere, Maia is of the mind that he can beat you, without hurting you. After being knocked out by Nate Marquardt in only 21 seconds, it seems he's left that theory, and looked to shore up his striking. Against Miranda, Maia may look to show his improved standup, but if he gets in trouble, expect him to return to the bread and butter of his jiu jitsu. Miranda, is a bit of an unknown to UFC fans. He was knocked out in his debut by up and comer Gerald Harris, but in his second fight, really put the nails in the coffin on former great, but past his prime David Loiseau. Is Miranda really ready to step up against a fighter of Maia's caliber? My gut says no.

For the sake of argument, lets say that Miranda possesses the grappling and submissions skills to neutralize those of Maia, he still has to contend with the vastly improved standup, and I don't think he wants to do that. This fight will probably be very similar to Gabriel Gonzaga vs Fabricio Werdum. Two high level grapplers, with a little bit of striking, and the more technical and experienced black belt will survive. Maia forces the referee to stop the fight early in the second round.

Maia via TKO, Rd. 2

James "Lights Out" Toney vs. Randy "The Natural" Couture
heavyweight (205-265)

MMA vs. Boxing. Read that, and throw it away. This isn't one sport versus the other. It's a MMA fight, pitting a boxing champion, against a UFC Hall of Famer. It's a bit of a freakshow, but it's also Dana White proving to the boxers out there, that if they're not careful, they might just get what they want. Does anyone in the UFC, or all of MMA for that matter, have world class boxing skills? Maybe, but you could probably count them all on one hand. Do they need world class boxing skills? Watch a Hermes Franca fight and then get back to me. If this were a boxing match, Couture could hold his own for a bit, but would ultimately get KTFO by Toney. Thankfully, this is MMA, and while Toney is a beast on his feet, he's no match for the cerebral, and multifaceted fight style, of Couture.

"The Natural" is the king of solid gameplans, and sticking to them. Watch his comeback from retirement against Tim Sylvia and you'll see what I mean. Couture actually did some boxing way back when, during his days in the Army. His head movement and footwork are fantastic, and he throws his punches with a nice snap. That being said, the closest he's going to get to Toney, is either leg kicks, or a greco clinch to take the boxer to the mat, and introduce him to elbows.

Toney is a terror on the feet, and Couture will be wise to stay out of striking exchanges. With perhaps the strongest, hardest, fastest punches he will have encountered, Toney will need to do all he can to keep the fight where it favors him, standing. Though if he connects when he hits, he'll do some damage, the four ounce gloves will not do Toney any favors in the defense department. Nor will the fact that he'll be fighting barefoot, which takes away from his traction, and can affect punching power and accuracy. While his strengths are considerable, Toney is fighting quite the uphill battle.

The short of it is, Toney is going to lose. Does he have a chance? Absolutely. Is it a good chance? Not even remotely. Where Couture has to be worried, is where he may feel the most comfortable, in the clinch. "The Natural" has shown a tendency to fall prey to short, compact punches. If he isn't careful, Toney is likely to unleash an uppercut from his waits and just about take Coutures head off. That being said, I don't see Couture trying to prove anything standing, and clinch Toney with the intention of taking him for a ride. Once this fight hits the mat, it's all academic, as Randy gets the stoppage win midway through the first round. Will I be shocked if Toney wins? No, but I will be surprised.

Couture via rear naked choke, Rd. 1

Lightweight Championship
Frankie "The Answer" Edgar vs. BJ "The Prodigy" Penn
lightweight (155)

In a rematch of a very closely contested fight back in April, this fight is quickly shaping up to be a fierce battle between two proud warriors. After five hard fought rounds, Edgar was awarded the unanimous decision, one that has been heatedly argued in the last four months. Usually a fairly quiet, and reserved fighter, Edgar has begun to show signs of bristling at the notion that he is the underdog, and clearly feels he deserves more respect. Penn, on the other hand, is still trying to prove that he is the greatest lightweight fighter of all time, and that Edgar's victory was a combination of Penn not being at 100% physically or mentally, poor judging, and quite a bit of luck.

Edgar is not too much bigger than the 155 pounds he weighs in the day before the fights. Contrast that with almost every other fighter out there, including Penn, who cuts somewhere in the neighborhood of 15-20 pounds, this leads to a size disadvantage, but also much less dehydration, and physical exhaustion. This gives Edgar the edge in longer fights, and also the ability to use his quickness to wear out other fighters and drag them into the deep waters of later rounds. Size aside, Edgar is solid fundamentally in almost every aspect of MMA. Crisp, clean boxing, technically sound grappling, and great cardio. Where he may get into trouble in this fight, is that Penn is much better in at least two of those categories, and come Saturday, the third might not even be a factor.

I think BJ is part shark, because no human with bones can bend like he does. Seriously, try to get into a lotus position without touching your feet with your hands. No seriously, try it, I'll wait. After you relocate your hips, continue reading. Not easy is it? Penn uses that flexibility and monkey like dexterity of all four limbs, to literally pin his opponents limbs down, and either choke them out, or pummel them unconscious. Combine this with his superb boxing, downright impregnable takedown defense, and you have what should have been Edgar's kryptonite. The one thing missing from Penn's arsenal, was motivation. It's been said that the only thing that can stop Penn, is himself. After losing to Edgar, the fire to compete was reignited, and he's out to prove that with no doubt in the world, he is the best lightweight, and possibly pound for pound fighter in the world.

The wildcard in this fight, is grappling and submissions. While Edgar has stout marks in both departments, his submission game is light years behind Penn's, and that seems to be the area where "The Prodigy" will look to find weakness. BJ has trained extensively with some of the worlds top level bjj black belts for this fight, which leads one to the conclusion that he may try to get this fight to the ground immediately, and get a tapout as quickly as he can, almost as if to put a point on the first match being a fluke.

BJ is only 31, and is in his athletic prime. The only thing holding him back has been his own motivation, which appeared to have waned after beating Diego Sanchez, but in the loss to Edgar seems to be back in full force. Edgar is a very talented, and tough fighter, but in this fight, he's going to be trying very hard to prove he is the best in the world at 155, against maybe the best ever in the weight class. Penn will finish this fight very early, maybe even in the first round, but I see it ending early in the second, ala the fight against Jens Pulver, with a rear naked choke.

NEW LIGHTWEIGHT CHAMPION
Penn via submission (rear naked choke) Rd. 2