UFC 117

After a solid showing on Vs, last Sunday, the UFC brings us their first pay per view of August, and it's a doozy. A surefire exciting lightweight bout, a winner gets a title shot heavyweight fight, an avenging student against the man who dominated his mentor scrap, a winner gets a title shot welterweight fight, and one of the most interesting championship fights in a very long time. I'm excited, are you excited? BECAUSE YOU SHOULD BE!

Clay "The Carpenter" Guida vs Rafael dos Anjos
lightweight (155)

After his dismantling at the hands of Kenny Florian, Guida has rededicated himself to becoming solid in all aspects of the fight game, and it showed when he submitted Shannon Gugerty with an arm triangle from the mount. The renewed approach, and adding mma guru Greg Jackson to his coaching and training regime have started to pay impressive dividends. With the guidance of Jackson, Guida is adding submission offense and defense to his already stacked arsenal of wrestling, top control, and borderline inhuman conditioning. Already one of the UFC's more popular fighters, wins over top opponents like dos Anjos will certainly help propel him to the upper echelon of the 155 pound division.

Dos Anjos started off on the wrong foot in his first two UFC fights. Thrown to the wolves right away, he was knocked out with an uppercut from hell by Jeremy Stephens (though he was arguably winning the fight until that point), and then out wrestled and out grappled by seasoned veteran Tyson Griffin. The young Brazilian rebounded with tight decision wins in his next two fights, and then submitted highly touted British striker Terry Etim with an armbar. Dos Anjos has a very solid submission game, and surprisingly stout takedowns to get the fight to the ground to work those submissions. By getting past Guida, dos Anjos could set himself up for a big leap in popularity, and caliber of opponent for his next fight.

This fight boils down to whether or not dos Anjos can handle the pace that Guida sets, and can Guida avoid the buzz saw like leg kicks and vise grip submissions of dos Anjos. After getting picked apart by Diego Sanchez and Florian, Guida appears to be taking a more measured approach to his fights, and is less likely to charge headlong into the fray and just hope he can pull it out. Dos Anjos has the ground game to give any fighter fits, but against Guida, may struggle to get the fight to where he can take advantage of that fact. With his stifling top game, expect Guida to wear out dos Anjos until early in the third, when "The Carpenter" finally pounds him out for the referee stoppage. Very entertaining fight, and it'll probably be the first we see.

Guida via TKO, Rd. 3.

Roy "Big Country" Nelson vs. Junior "Cigano" dos Santos
heavyweight (265)

This fight was fairly interesting when it was just an established heavyweight contender matched up with a surging veteran finally getting his shot. According to Nelson, dos Santos should have fought for the title already, and in the eyes of many, he's not wrong. "Cigano" has absolutely destroyed every heavyweight put in front of him. Wins over Gilbert Yvel, Mirko CroCop, Gabriel Gonzaga, and in his UFC debut, knocked out the man who handed Fedor Emilianenko his first defeat in 6+ years, Fabricio Werdum! In Nelson, dos Santos has an opponent who has a more well rounded skill set physically, than any opponent he's fought, and perhaps the most mentally sound as well. While both men expect a war, neither would mind an early finish, providing they are the victor.

Nelson came up slowly in mma, while dos Santos' rise could only be described as meteoric. Both men have solid resumes, and are solid top to bottom in every aspect of the game. So who takes it? Nelson has had trouble with larger fighters, until recently when he put away Brendan Schaub, and the monolithic Stefan Struve in back to back fights. as a 34 year old veteran of mma, Nelson has been around the block a few times, and knows how to keep his head level. He throws punches with crisp, clean precision, and enough behind them to level a "Skyscraper" (sorry, couldn't resist) Where he'll probably want to take this fight is the ground, where his submission and grappling acumen is second to few in the division, and he can lend his considerable bulk to dominant top control.

Dos Santos has at least, but probably more striking power and prowes than Nelson, and he is no slouch in the ground game himself. With a brown belt in bjj, under the Nogueira brothers no less, he knows his way around a submission hold. Don't be surprised though, if dos Santos tries to keep this fight standing, because that is where he can be truly dominant. With his only fight in the UFC that escaped the first round being his sound thrashing of Mirko CroCop ending in CroCop verbally quitting in the third round, and the rest coming via violent knockout before the end of the first stanza, on his feet is where the Brazilian is comfy. With lightning quick combos, powerful hooks, and an uppercut that comes from his hip with enough speed and power to make you think he hit the select button and spent a star to use it, it's no wonder that his opponents have failed to make him even work in his fights. All that is going to change on Saturday though, as Nelson plans to make dos Santos sweat for every inch, and is going to strive to be the first to claim victory against him in the Octagon.

On their feet, dos Santos is the faster, and more precise, but Nelson may have a slight power edge. In the grappling department, it's a slight advantage to Nelson, but that's mostly due to size, an understanding of how to use that size, and the fact that despite his accolades, we have no idea how well dos Santos will do when put on his back. In spite of that wild card, I give Nelson the slight edge on the ground. I see this fight going to the judges, and when the dust settles, Nelson will be given the judges nod based on Octagon control, damage inflicted, and knowing how to dictate pacing of drawn out fights. Very close fight, and wildly exciting.

Nelson via Unanimous Decision

Matt Hughes vs Ricardo "Big Dog" Almeida
welterweight (170)

When last we saw Matt Hughes fight, he was methodically leading up to a nasty finish of an otherwise pedestrian fight against Renzo Gracie. While nobody will claim that Renzo was not a solid fighter in his prime, going up against Matt Hughes, who's own best days are behind him, if you;re anything than at the top of your game, is a bad idea. Enter Almeida, who after dropping down from 185 pounds, is looking like a much tougher fighter, with a bjj game that rivals any fighter in the division, if not the entire organization. So what makes this fight compelling? How about Almeida being one of Renzo's tops students, and has had him in his corner for nearly all of his fights? I dig a good revenge story, and while the combatants may claim that revenge isn't a factor, it's not too hard to fathom Almeida looking to even the score with Hughes.

Possibly the most dominant welterweight champion of all time, Hughes is a product of a period of time in the UFC that has come and gone. A frighteningly powerful wrestler, with clockwork takedowns, and a borderline sociopathic ground and pound game, Hughes has seen the game pass him by to a certain degree, and is looking for nothing more than interesting challenges, at this point in his career. In Almeida, I am certain that is exactly what he is looking for.

"Big Dog" was one of the sports brightest prospects, Almeida took a three year hiatus from fighting to focus on running his jiu jitsu school. After a couple fights in the UFC at 185 pounds, he dropped to 170, and scored a submission win over the very game Matt Brown. Almeida is a third degree black belt in bjj under Renzo, and has been competing in mma nearly as long as Hughes, despite the amount of fights Hughes has in comparison. Almeida has some of the slickest submissions in all of mma, but Hughes is anything but a pushover in that department, having only been submitted by Dennis Hallman very early in his career, twice, BJ Penn, and Georges St. Pierre.

Almeida is hungry for a title shot, and despite his 33 years of age, has much less wear and tear on his body due to his time away from fighting. Hughes is in the twilight years of his career, but is still not a fighter to take lightly. Almeida is a former middleweight, and is most likely going to be the bigger fighter, though Hughes will probably have a slight strength advantage. The edge has worn off Hughes ground and pound however, and even if he gets Almeida down, he'll be a target for any number of the Brazilian's attempts to choke him out, or snap something. This fight may sound interesting, but it has the possibility of being about as exciting as Hughes' fight against Matt Serra, which was interesting, but didn't live up to the hype. Almeida will make Hughes work, earn a solid, if not electric decision due to being more active on the ground, and bring able to outpoint Hughes on the feet as Hughes has a woefully under developed striking game. What will this mean? Not much, but the left leg of Renzo Gracie will have it's blood thirst sated for now. ;)

Almeida via Unanimous Decision

Jon Fitch vs Thiago "Pitbull" Alves
welterweight (170)

A rematch of a 2006 fight that had Fitch winning by TKO, both fighters have come quite a long way since. Aside from the one thing they have in common, getting dominated by Georges St. Pierre in shots at GSPs title, they share little else.

A grinding, methodical fighter, with a very blue collar work ethic and approach to fighting, Fitch is the epitome of hard work paying off. A tall, and rangy frame that he is very adept at using to take fighters down and impose a smothering ground and pound with, Fitch has learned to maximize his physical tools, and backs up his skills with a near lunatic desire to win. His loss to GSP earned him the respect of the French-Canadian, and proved to everybody watching, that the former Purdue Boilermaker has no quit in him.

Alves has a much different tale. Coming to the US at the age of 19, he did not speak any english, yet had several amateur fights under his belt, and he was determined to become a professional fighter. A flashy, dynamic striker, Alves is a hulking beast of a welterweight, who has a surprising speed and fluidity to his game that belies his size. Add to the mix that his takedown defense has improved dramatically, and this fight becomes very interesting. Toss in the winner getting a shot at the winner of GSP and Josh Koscheck for the welterweight title strap, and you have a worthy co-main event.

In their first fight, Fitch hit Alves with an upkick, dropped him, and got on top to finish him off with ground and pound. With the amount of growth both fighters have shown since then, don't expect this fight to go the same way. While his takedowns are still some of the best in the division, Fitch has less than top notch striking, offense and defense, and has shown a tendency to drop his hands at times, a bad habit at best, and at worst, an invitation to Snoozeville against a striker like Alves. "The Pitbull" on the other hand, while possessing nasty leg kicks, and knees capable of uprooting small trees, has always had suspect conditioning, and it's known that he doesn't always train as hard as some of the other top contenders. It's his first fight in over a year, and in that time, Fitch has fought twice, so ring rust could be a very real possibility.

Bottom line, expect both fighters to come out wary, but looking to engage if the other makes a mistake. Fitch may get caught with a punch, but has shown remarkable resilience, and can but Alves on his butt if the Brazilian over commits. Fitch will try drag this fight into the heavy top control arena he loves, but Alves has evolved a good enough takedown defense, that all it's going to do is get Fitch pasted with hooks and jabs, until a shot for a takedown is met with a knee to the chin, and it's lights out Jon Fitch, hello winner of GSP/Koscheck for Mr. Alves.

Alves via KO, Rd. 2

MIDDLEWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP

Chael Sonnen vs. Anderson "The Spider" Silva (champion)
middleweight (185)

Sonnen has been a trash talking machine dating back to before he knew he was going to be fighting Silva. Since then, the Oregon native has been a one man fight promoter, doing everything including accusing Silva of ducking him, telling the world he is going to retire Silva, and calling into question the motivations of Silva to fight. Silva on the other hand, has remained aloof, answering questions through his interpreter, and avoiding returning trash talk. From that standpoint alone, it will be worth watching.

What really makes this a fight deserving the hype, is the skill set Sonnen brings to bear. A former All-American wrestler at the University of Oregon, Sonnen also has one of the most dominating and controlling top games in the entire middleweight division. If he gets a hold of you, you're going for a ride. The problem is, can he get past the elbows, fists, knees, and shins of Silva?

When motivated to fight, nobody can touch "The Spider". In his last three fights however, he looked bored at times, despite his dominance, and came off as petulant, and arrogant. UFC president Dana White threatened to cut Silva if his performances continued in that manner, and one hopes that Sonnen is fueling Silva's fire to churn out the Muy Thai buzz saws, and end Sonnen's night in a hurry.

In his fight against Dan Henderson, Silva showed difficulty avoiding the body lock trip to the ground, and had a hard time dealing with the top control of a world class wrestler. Sonnen is a Team Quest member, and like most of his teammates, knows how to get you down to the mat. With each round starting on the feet though, Sonnen is going to need to find a way to circumvent those laser guided strikes Silva likes to throw, in order to get the fight to where it benefits him most.

Maybe I'm drinking the Kool-Aid, maybe I'm so tired of Silva that I believe he's beatable, or maybe, I think that all good things must come to an end. Never have I thought that Chael Sonnen was the one who would dethrone Silva, but I think that's how this fight could very well end. I'm doing it, I'm going to say that Sonnen takes Silva's belt, and forces White to either cut Silva, or eat his words and make excuses. Either way, the ref pulls Sonnen off Silva in the third, and we have a new UFC middleweight champ for the first time in four years.

Sonnen via TKO, Rd. 3