600 pounds. That is pretty darn close to what the two fighters in this Saturdays main event at UFC 116 will weigh come the time of the fight. Leading up to the featured bout are fights that will help shape the future of the lightweight title picture, an rematch of a light heavyweight fight stopped due to an unfortunate cut, a potential fight of the night candidate between two of the toughest sluggers in the welterweight division, and a middleweight tilt between a fighter looking to prove that he is amongst the elite in the division, and a granite chinned brawler with nothing to lose.
I can't think of the last UFC event that featured all five weight classes in each of the main card fights, and each one should be better than the last, culminating in the biggest heavyweight title clash in company history. The polarizing nature of current champion Brock Lesnar, and his undeniable talent could make this the most watched UFC event this year. Whether or not that is a good thing for the sport of mma will be determined at a later point, but until then....
George Sotiropoulos vs Kurt "Batman" Pellegrino
Two of the hottest lightweight fighters in the UFC collide Saturday with aspirations of improving their stock in the division, and moving closer to a title shot. Sotiropoulos has won five straight and has been looking better and better in the Octagon. A win against the also streaking Pellegrino would help elevate him even further.
After getting submitted by Nate Diaz two years ago, "Batman" has rattled off four straight wins and is trying to get back into title contention himself. Once considered something of a gatekeeper amongst the 155ers, he has started to establish himself as a force to be reckoned with.
This fight is all about how their strengths match up, and who can exploit the shortcomings of the other more easily. With each fighter more than capable on the ground, and both being blackbelts in bjj, this fight could very well be decided on the feet, and if that's the case, Pellegrino is in for a long night.
Sotiropoulos is far and above the better striker, and while his wrestling may not be his strongest skill, he is more than capable of stuffing Pellegrino's takedowns, and keeping this fight where he can maximize his reach and striking advantage. Pellegrino has a stout chin, and can wing an overhand right with enough pop to make Sotiropoulos pick his shots carefully, but ultimately, this fight is the Aussies to win, and he should handily pummel Pellegrino for three rounds and get the judges nod.
Sotiropoulos via Unanimous Decision
Krzysztof "The Polish Experiment" Soszynski vs Stephan "The American Psycho' Bonnar
At first glance, this fight lacks the luster of the other main card bouts. It has no title implications, and moderate name recognition. What it does have, is history. Back in February, these two mma veterans went to war for the better part of three rounds, until the referee stopped the fight due to a major cut Bonnar suffered when the fighters clashed heads inadvertently. Despite an appeal of the decision, Soszynski was awarded the TKO victory, but both fighters, and most fans, were left unfulfilled.
Both men have a ton of experience, and are well rounded, complete fighters. Bonnar has a more dynamic striking repetoire, but Soszynski has a more technically sound, if not exciting standup game. Where Bonnar excels is keeping distance, and letting the side kicks, and spinning back fists fly. He loves to throw caution to the wind, and go for the high risk/high reward moves, relying on his sturdy chin, and stellar conditioning to keep him out of trouble. He may want to revisit the drawing board for the rematch.
Both men have a ton of experience, and are well rounded, complete fighters. Bonnar has a more dynamic striking repetoire, but Soszynski has a more technically sound, if not exciting standup game. Where Bonnar excels is keeping distance, and letting the side kicks, and spinning back fists fly. He loves to throw caution to the wind, and go for the high risk/high reward moves, relying on his sturdy chin, and stellar conditioning to keep him out of trouble. He may want to revisit the drawing board for the rematch.
"The Polish Experiment" has been steadily improving since making the leap to the UFC, and is looking to pick right back up where he left off. Pressure against the cage, nasty clinch work, and heavy body shots were what worked for him in their first fight, but Bonnar learns from his mistakes better than most, and if Soszynski tries to make the rematch a carbon copy, he may find that he is in for a rude awakening.
Soszynski was most likely on his way to a unanimous decision, but Bonnar wasn't going down easily, and with the very real possibility of the loser of this fight getting pink slipped, both fighters could bring a sense of desperation to the scrap. (Bonnar wont get canned, he has a job with the UFC for LIFE!)
I expect this fight to go much like the first, albeit a bit closer. Back and forth striking, very little ground work, but with Bonnar making it a much closer fight for the judges. Soszynski may do enough to win in the eyes of the casual fan, but as we've seen all year, that doesn't mean much to the judges. Expect an inexplicable split decision for "The American Psycho"
Bonnar via Split Decision
Chris "Lights Out" Lytle vs. "The Immortal" Matt Brown
I'm going to call it now. Despite how tough and hard fought the Bonnar-Soszynski fight will be, Brown-Lytle will be fight of the night. Both fighters love to stand and trade leather, and are not opposed to eating a few punches her and there to achieve that goal. There is no small amount of grappling, and submission acumen in either fighter, but the desire to inflict grievous injury with hands, elbows, knees and feet, remain priority number one for both.
Chris Lytle is hands down the superior boxer, preferring to rely on his footwork, and head movement to set up his shots. He also has a nice jab, and devastating power in both hands. While his submission chops are solid (18 of his 28 victories have come via submission), it's more because of his knowledge of how to grab a limb that's sticking out, than pursuing a tapout from bell to bell. The crazy thing about this guy, is that in 50 career fights, he's been stopped twice, sort of. His two TKO losses were due to cuts, and other than that, his other 15 losses were all by decision. So with all that info, your best bet as his opponent is to try and grind him out with superior wrestling, and top control to get a decision win, but don't bank on Matt Brown taking that route.
As much as Lytle like to sling fists with nasty intentions, Brown might actually dig it more. While not as technically sound in the boxing department, Brown has a much more varied stand up game. With solid punches, nasty knees and kicks, and every bit as well rounded in the grappling aspect of mma as Lytle, this is going to get nasty early, and stay that way for a while. These fighters have actually faced off before, with Lytle submitting Brown via guillotine choke in the second round, but don't expect a repeat.
This is going to be two fighters going all guns blazing for three rounds straight, and no matter who wins, we as fans will get to stand up and applaud two warriors putting it all on the line. Since this IS a prediction article though, I will give Brown the nod by a sliver, despite Lytle's frightening determination and solid chin. Brown has a bit more mean in him, and is coming off a loss, which never puts you in a good mood. Brown by the slimmest of margins.
Brown via Split Decision
Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Chris "The Crippler" Leben
This was originally supposed to be Akiyama squaring off with Wanderlei Silva. When the brazilian torn a ligament in his knee a few weeks ago, he doggedly insisted he could still fight. The bad breaks kept coming when Silva suffered broken ribs less than two weeks before the fight, and was forced to withdraw. Despite being on short notice, and coming off a fight of his own just three days earlier, Leben jumped at the opportunity and with just ten days until the fight, signed on to replace Silva.
As tough as Leben is, and there are few tougher, this may not have been the smartest decision. Akiyama is a far tougher fight than anyone Leben has ever fought (outside of Anderson Silva), and with less than two weeks to prepare, AND having fought very recently, the chips are definitely stacked against "The Crippler". That being said, he is not that far removed from Akiyama's original opponent, the legendary Wanderlei Silva. Leben is a good sized middleweight, has devastating knockout power, and is damn near impossible to knockout (again, outside Anderson Silva), so he is far from a foregone conclusion.
Akiyama is a slick judoka, with throw from almost every clinch and angle imaginable, and a crisp standup game. He displayed much more boxing in his very close split decision win over Alan Belcher last July, but that was also his last fight, so cage rust is a distinct possibility. A year between fights can affect you more than you might think, just ask Rampage. ;)
For Leben to be successful, he needs to keep the pressure on Akiyama, and wear him out by cutting off the cage, and forcing him to go for takedowns. Going tow to toe with Leben should be an option saved for emergencies only, mostly due to the fact that it leads to unconsciousness unless, well, you know. Akiyama has to get this fight down to take advantage of the gulf between the fighters ground game. Leben is no slouch, but Akiyama is great at keeping pressure on while looking for submissions. I don't know who I was going to pick in the original fight, but here the odds are just too much against Leben, but I see him making Akiyama earn the unanimous nod from the judges.
Akiyama via Unanimous Decision.
HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP UNIFICATION FIGHT
Champion Brock Lesnar vs Interim Champion Shane Carwin
Damn, just DAMN! The biggest, literally, heavyweight championship fight to ever occur in UFC history goes down at the end of the night. With both fighters likely to weigh in at the 265 limit of the heavyweight division, and most likely weighing closer to 275-280 come fight time, the UFC better have a reinforced Octagon to hold the two behemoths.
Lesnar is one of the easiest fighters to dislike, especially after his less than gentlemanly speech following his demolition of Frank Mir last July. However, a life threatening bout with diverticulitis, makes him a somewhat more sympathetic figure as he enters his first fight in a year. All that said, what Lesnar tries to do is simple, use King Kong like strength to try and bash your face in from wherever, and whenever he can. Carwin could be the Ghidora to Lesnar's Godzilla.
With hands bigger than Lesnars, and nearly as much muscle behind them, Carwin brings a more measured, cerebral approach to fighting. Training on a regular basis with the cream of the mma crop, and with gameplan guru Greg Jackson doing much of the analysis, Carwin has will be more than prepared to go to war with the massive Minnesotan.
It's simple, who can impose their will first, and with the most force? This fight is not going five championship rounds. Hell, it's not going three, but don't be surprised if it gets out of the first, and sneaks out of the second. Carwin is undefeated in 12 career fights, with nothing going past the fourth minute of round one, and Lesnar has managed to go three rounds only once in his career, so conditioning may be a factor, but my guess is not. It comes own to who can take a punch better? Lesnar has never had his chin tested, and Carwin has only been really cracked on by Gabriel Gonzaga, who after dropping Carwin, couldn't hold him down, and was KO'd with a nasty right hand.
On a night full of lengthy wars, this fight will be simple brutality, and very brief in comparison. The first minute or two will be a feeling out period, followed by Lesnar throwing an ill advised punch, and getting countered to the mat where Carwins 5XL gloves clobbertybonk the bejebus out of him, and Josh Rosenthal is forced to stop the fight, right near the 4 minute mark.
Carwin via TKO, and new heavyweight champion.
Chris "Lights Out" Lytle vs. "The Immortal" Matt Brown
I'm going to call it now. Despite how tough and hard fought the Bonnar-Soszynski fight will be, Brown-Lytle will be fight of the night. Both fighters love to stand and trade leather, and are not opposed to eating a few punches her and there to achieve that goal. There is no small amount of grappling, and submission acumen in either fighter, but the desire to inflict grievous injury with hands, elbows, knees and feet, remain priority number one for both.
Chris Lytle is hands down the superior boxer, preferring to rely on his footwork, and head movement to set up his shots. He also has a nice jab, and devastating power in both hands. While his submission chops are solid (18 of his 28 victories have come via submission), it's more because of his knowledge of how to grab a limb that's sticking out, than pursuing a tapout from bell to bell. The crazy thing about this guy, is that in 50 career fights, he's been stopped twice, sort of. His two TKO losses were due to cuts, and other than that, his other 15 losses were all by decision. So with all that info, your best bet as his opponent is to try and grind him out with superior wrestling, and top control to get a decision win, but don't bank on Matt Brown taking that route.
As much as Lytle like to sling fists with nasty intentions, Brown might actually dig it more. While not as technically sound in the boxing department, Brown has a much more varied stand up game. With solid punches, nasty knees and kicks, and every bit as well rounded in the grappling aspect of mma as Lytle, this is going to get nasty early, and stay that way for a while. These fighters have actually faced off before, with Lytle submitting Brown via guillotine choke in the second round, but don't expect a repeat.
This is going to be two fighters going all guns blazing for three rounds straight, and no matter who wins, we as fans will get to stand up and applaud two warriors putting it all on the line. Since this IS a prediction article though, I will give Brown the nod by a sliver, despite Lytle's frightening determination and solid chin. Brown has a bit more mean in him, and is coming off a loss, which never puts you in a good mood. Brown by the slimmest of margins.
Brown via Split Decision
Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Chris "The Crippler" Leben
This was originally supposed to be Akiyama squaring off with Wanderlei Silva. When the brazilian torn a ligament in his knee a few weeks ago, he doggedly insisted he could still fight. The bad breaks kept coming when Silva suffered broken ribs less than two weeks before the fight, and was forced to withdraw. Despite being on short notice, and coming off a fight of his own just three days earlier, Leben jumped at the opportunity and with just ten days until the fight, signed on to replace Silva.
As tough as Leben is, and there are few tougher, this may not have been the smartest decision. Akiyama is a far tougher fight than anyone Leben has ever fought (outside of Anderson Silva), and with less than two weeks to prepare, AND having fought very recently, the chips are definitely stacked against "The Crippler". That being said, he is not that far removed from Akiyama's original opponent, the legendary Wanderlei Silva. Leben is a good sized middleweight, has devastating knockout power, and is damn near impossible to knockout (again, outside Anderson Silva), so he is far from a foregone conclusion.
Akiyama is a slick judoka, with throw from almost every clinch and angle imaginable, and a crisp standup game. He displayed much more boxing in his very close split decision win over Alan Belcher last July, but that was also his last fight, so cage rust is a distinct possibility. A year between fights can affect you more than you might think, just ask Rampage. ;)
For Leben to be successful, he needs to keep the pressure on Akiyama, and wear him out by cutting off the cage, and forcing him to go for takedowns. Going tow to toe with Leben should be an option saved for emergencies only, mostly due to the fact that it leads to unconsciousness unless, well, you know. Akiyama has to get this fight down to take advantage of the gulf between the fighters ground game. Leben is no slouch, but Akiyama is great at keeping pressure on while looking for submissions. I don't know who I was going to pick in the original fight, but here the odds are just too much against Leben, but I see him making Akiyama earn the unanimous nod from the judges.
Akiyama via Unanimous Decision.
HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP UNIFICATION FIGHT
Champion Brock Lesnar vs Interim Champion Shane Carwin
Damn, just DAMN! The biggest, literally, heavyweight championship fight to ever occur in UFC history goes down at the end of the night. With both fighters likely to weigh in at the 265 limit of the heavyweight division, and most likely weighing closer to 275-280 come fight time, the UFC better have a reinforced Octagon to hold the two behemoths.
Lesnar is one of the easiest fighters to dislike, especially after his less than gentlemanly speech following his demolition of Frank Mir last July. However, a life threatening bout with diverticulitis, makes him a somewhat more sympathetic figure as he enters his first fight in a year. All that said, what Lesnar tries to do is simple, use King Kong like strength to try and bash your face in from wherever, and whenever he can. Carwin could be the Ghidora to Lesnar's Godzilla.
With hands bigger than Lesnars, and nearly as much muscle behind them, Carwin brings a more measured, cerebral approach to fighting. Training on a regular basis with the cream of the mma crop, and with gameplan guru Greg Jackson doing much of the analysis, Carwin has will be more than prepared to go to war with the massive Minnesotan.
It's simple, who can impose their will first, and with the most force? This fight is not going five championship rounds. Hell, it's not going three, but don't be surprised if it gets out of the first, and sneaks out of the second. Carwin is undefeated in 12 career fights, with nothing going past the fourth minute of round one, and Lesnar has managed to go three rounds only once in his career, so conditioning may be a factor, but my guess is not. It comes own to who can take a punch better? Lesnar has never had his chin tested, and Carwin has only been really cracked on by Gabriel Gonzaga, who after dropping Carwin, couldn't hold him down, and was KO'd with a nasty right hand.
On a night full of lengthy wars, this fight will be simple brutality, and very brief in comparison. The first minute or two will be a feeling out period, followed by Lesnar throwing an ill advised punch, and getting countered to the mat where Carwins 5XL gloves clobbertybonk the bejebus out of him, and Josh Rosenthal is forced to stop the fight, right near the 4 minute mark.
Carwin via TKO, and new heavyweight champion.