UFC 114

Well, it's finally here. A more than likely bad movie, and a lost title in the interim aside, we now get to settle the long simmering feud between Rampage and Rashad. All the animosity aside, this is actually shaping up to be a solid card. How solid? Well lets figure it out.

Diego "Nightmare" Sanchez vs. John "Hitman" Hathaway
welterweight (170)

This marks the return of Sanchez to the welterweight division, after his bid for the lightweight title ended with a portion of his skull getting exposed to the elements courtesy BJ Penn's right shin bone. Although Sanchez had two successful fights at 155, he seemed to lack the power and explosiveness he did at 170. By making the move back up, he will once again set out with the title in his sights, despite the much deeper waters of the welterweight division.

Hathaway is one of the two fighters nicknamed Hitman on this card, and is riding a three fight winning streak in the UFC. Hathaway likes to use his strength, and takedown abilities to dictate the pacing of his fights. A former rugby player, he is not afraid of a little pain to deal out some damage of his own, but against Sanchez, it seems like a poor idea.

Sanchez was Clay Guida, before Guida ever stepped into the Octagon. He's a cardio powerhouse, who has a strong wrestling base, and has improved upon it with solid striking, and underrated submission skills. The only fighters to defeat Sanchez at 170 have been current number one contender Josh Koscheck, and former title challenger Jon Fitch. Nobody else has come even close. "The Nightmare" is just that, and if his skills aren't enough, he is one of the mentally strongest fighters out there. Hathaway is going to find this out the hard way, and catch the fury of the returning Sanchez in the form of a nasty stoppage in the first round.

Sanchez via TKO, Rd. 1

Antonio Rogerio "Minotoro" Nogueira vs Jason "The Hitman" Brilz
lightheavyweight (205)

Gadzooks, there are hitmen everywhere. I didn't like the odds for the previous Hitman, and I like those of his lightheavyweight counterpart even less. Nogueira is probably only two or three wins away from getting a shot at the lightheavyweight title, and this fight was supposed to be against former champ Forrest Griffin where the winner would be in prime position for a title shot. Griffin got hurt, and they had to find a late replacement just three weeks ago. In steps Brilz.

A very tough fighter, Brilz has very little to lose in this fight, and everything to gain. Nogueira is a better boxer, better grappler, and has oodles more experience. Brilz has a punchers chance, but if a superior brawler like Luis Cane gets starched in just over two minutes, what can "The Hitman" bring to the Octagon? Expect a clinic in footwork, head movement, and Brilz knocking out, as Nogueira gets his hand raised early in the second stanza.

Nogueira via KO, Rd. 2

Todd Duffee vs Mike Russow
heavyweight (205-265)

Odds are this fight will last longer than Duffee's UFC debut where he flattened Tim Hague in seven seconds, but how much longer is anyone's guess. Russow is a Chicago police officer, and one of the few heavyweights capable of matching the gargantuan stature of Duffee. He brings solid striking and grappling to the fight, but will it be enough?

Duffee is simply GINORMOUS! He hasn't fought since his record setting KO due to back surgery, and it will have to be seen if he has recovered, and the ring rust hasn't started to settle in. Duffee has.... a nasty jab and some devastating ground and pound. He also hasn;t had a fight go past the second round, and is 6-0 with six KOs or TKOs. Not a good sign for Russow.

The Chicago PD may want to skip watching this one, as Duffee is younger, bigger, and stronger than Russow. He is looking to make a name for himself in the heavyweight division, and despite his not insubstantial stature, will be sleeping like a baby late in the first round.

Duffee via KO, Rd. 1

Michael "The Count" Bisping vs. Dan Miller
middleweight (185)

Miller has lost his last two fights, but they were against Chael Sonnen, and Demian Maia, the current, and former number one contenders in the division, respectively. The older brother of UFC lightweight Jim Miller, and recent recipient of his bjj black belt, Dan is a rising star in the division. Against Bisping, however, he finds himself in a big disadvantage on the feet, and will need to find a way to nullify the brutal ground and pound "The Count" like to bring to bear on his fallen opponents.

Bisping has enjoyed success since dropping from 205 to 185. Aside from his near decapitation to Dan Henderson last July, and his close decision loss to future Hall of Famer Wanderlei Silva in his last fight, the evolution of Bisping continues, and he will look to right the ship against the very game Miller.

Miller has decent standup, and a more than adequate wrestling base, but his bread and butter is his submission game. He fights well off his back, but catching Bisping in a submission is a very difficult task, especially when the Brit is dropping fists and elbows on your head. Miller's best bet to coax a tapout from Bisping, will be to work from top, and taking him down has proven to be much harder than it sounds. When fighters like Matt Hamill and Dan Henderson have to work to get you down, you know your takedown D is pretty good.

Expect Bisping to push the pace on the feet, working his very good boxing, and throwing in some good clinch work to boot. Miller will not go down easy, but just doesn't have the striking arsenal to keep up with "The Count", as he drops the fight in all three judges eyes.

Bisping via Unanimous Decision

Quinton "Rampage" Jackson vs "Sugar" Rashad Evans
lightheavyweight (205)
number one contender match

Well, we have waited almost too long for this fight, and with how much these guys dislike each other, it should be a hell of a fight. Evans has come miles and miles since winning the second season of The Ultimate Fighter, becoming only the second winner of the show to capture championship gold, and has grown by leaps and bounds as a fighter. Despite losing the belt to Lyoto Machida, he has rebounded with an impressive win over Thiago Silva, and is now poised to get a shot at newly crowned Mauricio "Shogun" Rua, if he can take care of his nemesis.

While Jackson is the more experienced of the two, and more polished as a fighter, he also hasn't fought in over a year. An established superstar upon arriving in the UFC, he has beaten some of the best in the world, and looks to make his return a statement, and get a chance to avenge a loss to Rua when both men fought in Pride.

Both men have good wrestling, but Evans is arguably better, with his experience at Michigan State University, and prior to that his junior college national championship. For all his bravado, and often bizarre antics, Jackson is the much more technically proficient striker of the two. Solid footwork, and head movement, crisp combos, and lightning counters put the standup favor in Jackson's corner. So where do the edges come in this fight?

Rampage has the reach, Evans has the athletic explosiveness. Evans has a more varied striking game, and Rampage has better ground and pound. I see Evans getting frustrated with the ability of Rampage to dictate pacing, and slip up. Jackson is very good at capitalizing on mistakes, and it's been shown that Evans can lose his head in a fight. This fight will go the distance, but it wont even be close. Jackson gets the nod, and sets up Rampage vs Shogun, which will be a fantastic fight!

Jackson via Unanimous Decision.