UFC 111

Okay, no more going with sentimental picks, no more picking the underdog, no more sucking at these damned previews. It's going to be a fight card full of big fights, and sure to be some explosive outcomes. Hopefully I can get back to not being terrilb at this, but don't hold your breath.

Alright, let's do this.

Jim Miller vs. Mark Bocek
lightweight (155)

Miller has been on a tear as of late. With wins over Mac Danzig and Duane "Bang" Ludwig under his belt, Miller is looking to prove he is worthy of a step up in competition with his fight against Canadian grappler Bocek. With a very strong wrestling base, and an improving striking arsenal, Miller will definitely try to end Bocek's evening in spectacular fashion.

With three straight wins, and all of them coming via submission, it's easy to see why you cannot sleep on on Bocek. He has an extensive submission background, having studied under Rickson and Renzo Gracie. He also has a black belt in bjj, and is most at home when the fight hits the ground. His striking is sneaky in that he can lull you into lowering your hands, and crack you, but don't think he'll be engaging in a standup battle with the far superior striker that Miller is.

This fight will be determined by the ability of Bocek to withstand the pressure of Miller, and how much submission defense Miller has learned. Miller may even use his wrestling in reverse, to prevent the fight from going to the ground, and expose the average striking of Bocek. This fight ends with Boeck getting dropped, and Miller pounding on him until the refs mercifully stops the fight.

Miller via TKO, Rd. 2.

Ben "Killa B" Saunders vs. Jake Ellenberger
welterweight (170)

Both fighters recently rebounded from losses with wins in spectacular fashion. Saunders with an impressive TKO victory over the extremely tough Marcus Davis, and Ellenberger with a nasty TKO victory of his own over Mike Pyle. This will be a very action packed fight, with both fighters looking to throw some leather, and separate the other from their senses.

Saunders is quite tall for the division, standing six foot two. He also has some of the nastiest muy thai at 170, which he displayed in his wins over Brandon Wolf (google it, trust me) and the aforementioned Davis. "Killa B" brings devastating knees, and surprising submission skills as well, and is a handful for almost anybody at welterweight.

Ellenberger is a bit more compact fighter, but brings heavy hands, and a willingness to absorb punishment just to deal out some of his own. Only 1-1 in the UFC, but with nearly 30 fights under his belt, Ellenberger has a wealth of experience to draw on. Where he will need to succeed in this fight, is in closing the distance, and getting the fight to the ground, where he can ground and pound Saunders into goo.

It's no surprise what both of these fighters want to do, but there is quite a bit of disparity betwen what they want, and what will happen. Saunders will keep his distance, using kicks and a rangy jab, until he can secure a muy thai plum, and knee Ellenberger into unconsciousness. Ellenberger will try to close the distance quickly, and get Saunders to the mat where he can implement said goo production. Ellenberger doesn't have the ability to get inside the condor like reach of Saunders, and it'll just be a matter of time before "Killa B" turns his lights out, and gets the victory well in advance of the judges having anything to do with it.

Saunders via TKO, Rd. 1

Jon Fitch vs. Thiago "Pitbull" Alves
welterweight (170)

An extremely exciting fight that also happens to be a rematch. When these two last tussled, Fitch was starting his then record setting run in the UFC, and Alves was another young, promising, but yet to realize his potential newcomer. In fact, both men debuted for the UFC on the same fight card, albeit against other opponents. Fitch walked away the victor after dropping Alves with an upkick, and finishing him with ground and pound. Both fighters have come quite a long way since.

Alves has been a beastly wrecking machine since losing to Fitch. Rattling off seven straight victories including wins over Karo Parisyan, Matt Hughes, and Josh Koscheck, before losing to Georges St. Pierre last July in a title bout. Alves is a massive fighter for the welterweight division, and possesess some of the meanest leg kicks, and brutal striking overall, along with greatly improved takedown defense. "The Pitbull" is going to pose an all new host of problems for Fitch, and it's going to be interesting to see how he solves them.

At one time owning the UFC record for consecutive wins, Fitch also had his winning streak derailed by St. Pierre, but has rebounded with a new streak of three straight. As a freshman, he walked on to the Purdue wrestling team, and by his senior year was the captain. Not by being the best wrestler, not by being a freak athlete, but by being the hardest worker, simply not wearing out. He brings that drive to the octagon, along with a rangy reach, and gas tank that just doesn't seem to run out. Against Alves though, the second go around may prove to be much different.

While Fitch has improved his striking somewhat, he still relies on his wrestling, and heavy top game to wear opponents out until they make a mistake. His standup is average, and if he tries to go toe to toe with Fitch, it'll be a quick evening for the former Boilermaker. Alves, on the other hand, is a much different fighter since they last fought. His striking is on an entirely different level than Fitch, along with his footwork, and head movement. Alves' takedown defense is much better as well. With how shaky Fitch looked towards the end of his last fight against Mike Pierce, the edge has to go to Alves, and despite a game performance from Fitch, Alves will get the stoppage win.

Alves via TKO, Rd. 3

Frank Mir vs. Shane Carwin
heavyweight (265)
Interim Heavyweight Championship Bout

Carwin was originally set to fight Brock Lesnar for the title, but an intestinal illness sidelined the champ, and then Carwin opted for elbow surgery which put him on the shelf for a few months. Mir, after the savage beating he took at the hands of Lesnar, took Cheick Kongo out in short order, and is looking to fast track a rematch with Lesnar by beating Carwin. With two gigantic men trying to do grievous injury to each other in search of a title shot, this should be an extremely exciting fight.

Carwin has only been competing since 2005, but what he lacks in experience, he makes up for in every other aspect of the game. A former NCAA DIvision II wrestling champion, he has developed a nasty ground and pound to accompany his ever improving stand up. Carwin also is right near the top of the limit for the division, having weighed in between 255 and 265 for all three of his UFC fights. The one question facing Carwin, is his cardio. Having never gone farther than the 90 second mark in any of his fights, he may have to prove that he can hang out in the deep waters of a champioship fight, as Mir is likely to want to test the big mans gas tank.

It's been quite the journey for Mir. A former heavyweight champion, and interim heavyweight champion, he's been around the block. A bjj black belt, who has really started to develop into a well rounded fighter, Mir is a huge step up in competition for Carwin, and looks to test the Colorado native in many ways. Mir has improved his striking greatly in the years since he was tapping fighters left and right, using only his vast array of submissions. He has also started to work his cardio more diligently, and since his loss to Lesnar, has added 20+ pounds of muscle to his frame. Perhaps not to try and match the strength of the larger opponents in the division, but to make the size and strength of fighters like Carwin or Lesnar, less of a factor. Mir himself is not known as an endurance machine, with only two of his career fights having gone to the judges.

An interim title, and a chance to fight the big dog are at stake, and both men very much want that shot. Carwin has less polish on his striking, but has one punch knockout power, and surprising durability. He will probably try to get the better of the fight standing up, and if that doesn't work, use his wrestling base to get a stoppage via ground and pound. Mir needs to avoid the power on the feet, and use his footwork to create angles and see how good Carwins chin really is. If the fight does go to the mat, he cannot let Carwin get dominant position, as his size and strength make that a losing proposition. Mir will try to get guard against Carwin, and he will definitely tax the submission, and look to finish from there, while avoiding the cinderblocks Carwin calls hands.

Carwin is a stud, but this is a bad matchup for him. Mir is a much better striker, and overall much more polished than Carwin. This fight will make it into the second round, but not much further than that, as Mir drops Carwin midway through the second, and finishes him up much like he did Minotauro in 2008, with the ref stopping his ground and pound.

Mir via TKO, Rd. 2

Georges "Rush" St. Pierre vs Dan "The Outlaw" Hardy
welterweight (170)
Welterweight Championship Bout

After thoroughly dominating Thiago Alves last July at UFC 100, St. Pierre was forced to take the remainder of the year off recovering from a pulled groin. Hardy spent last year amassing an impressive array of victories. Defeating Rory Markham, Marcus Davis, and Mike Swick, he was selected to be next in line to challenge for St. Pierre's championship belt. With GSP eager to get back into the octagon, and Hardy looking to prove he deserves the title shot, this fight is going to be two fighters trying to put their own stamp on UFC 111.

St. Pierre is one of the most dominant, well rounded fighters in the UFC today. Improving after every fight, and rapidly becoming one the pound for pound best fighters in the world, there is little that can be said about GSP that hasn't been said before. With perhaps the best wrestling and takedowns the UFC has in any division, St. Pierre also has been steadily improving his submission, and striking skills. His record since losing the title to Matt Serra in his first title defense has been flawless, and GSP is trying to do his best to clean out the division.

While not as big a name as some of St. Pierre's other victims, "The Outlaw" is hardly one to back away froma a scrap. Possessing an extremely technical striking game, and a surprisingly durable chin, Hardy could possibly be the one to topple GSP for the first time in almost three years. AA rough and tumble british brawler, Hardy has actually been studying martial arts for most of his life, and is a much more complete fighter than he gets credit for. That being said, if he expects to get this fight into the later rounds, and perhaps get a massive upset, he will certainly want to keep the fight on the feet, and avoid the soul crushing top game of GSP. Unfortunately, that is much easier said than done.

Hardy has all the swagger, ability, and confidence to knock off almost any 170 pound fighter in the world, just not GSP. St. Pierre will dictate where this fight will be at every point, except the very beginning. His takedowns are phenomenal, and his striking is much better than perhaps even Hardy gives him credit for. "The Outlaw" has a punchers chance, make no mistake about it, but "Rush" learned his lesson against Serra, and will not put himself in the position to get dropped again. St. Pierre will push the pace, wreck some nasty ground and pound, until he gets the TKO victory early in the 4th round.

St. Pierre via TKO, Rd. 4