UFC 107

A title fight, and two fights with potential title implications. As a fight fan, I couldn't be much more excited. Without further ado.....

Paul "The Headhunter" Buentello vs Stefan "Skyscraper" Struve
Heavyweight (205-265)

The UFC welcomes back former heavyweight title contender Buentello, who returns after a four year absence from the Octagon. A winner of six of his last seven fights, Buentello looks bring his brute strength and KO power to bear against the young up and coming Struve.

Struve is a submission fighter who has shown surprising durability, but suspect standup skills, and he is going to have to find a way to get this fight off the feet and twist Buentello into shapes most birthday clowns would find creative.

"The Headhunter" is an extremely experienced, and savvy veteran, who uses his strength, and granite chin to wade through his opponents striking game, absorb punishment like some kind of masochistic sponge, and knock the guy standing across from him, TFO! Struve, after losing his UFC debut to current title challenger Junior Dos Santos, has rattled off two straight, impressive submission wins. "Skyscraper" has the ability to get this fight down, and while he is tough as nails, his takedown defense is anything but stellar. It's just not certain if Struve can hang with the power, and freakish durability Buentello brings to the table.

This fight comes down to the ability of Struve to avoid big damage on his feet and get the fight to the ground where he can utilize his stout grappling acumen. Buentello has to avoid a ground fight, and keep his range at a point where he can drop his heavy hands on Struve and send him to sleepytown. I think the crafty vet keeps this fight standing, gets the KO, and gets a nice bonus check for KO of the Night!

Buentello via KO, Rd. 1

Jon Fitch vs Mike Pierce
Welterweight (170)

This fight was originally scheduled to be Fitch against Ricardo Almeida, but then Almeida got hurt. So Thiago Alves' fight against Mike Pierce was scrapped so Alves could rematch Fitch from their '06 tussle. Then Alves got hurt, and the UFC brass combined what was remaining, and we get a very underrated matchup.

Fitch started in the UFC, with an eight fight winning streak, quickly elevating himself to elite status. After his one sided, albeit hard fought decision loss to champion Georges St. Pierre, Fitch has gotten back on track with two straight wins, and looks to make it three with this fight against a UFC newcomer in Pierce, who is only in his second UFC fight.

Pierce is a strong wrestler, but against Fitch, strong just isn't good enough. Pierce struggled with late round takedowns in his fight against Brock Larson in September, and Fitch is in another league when it comes to takedown defense, and cardio. Fitch is hungry for another title shot, but until St. Pierre loses, or Fitch rattles off another eight straight, the big mean former Purdue wrestling captain, will have to make due with terrorizing the ranks of the welterweight division.

Fitch has okay standup, but his bread and butter is his ground and pound. Pierce is going to need to keep this fight standing, and try and out point Fitch, and maybe even work a takedown or two of his own. I just don't see either of those happening. Look for the victory scowl to return as Fitch puts on a top control clinic, and gets a referee stoppage in the third round.

Fitch via TKO, Rd 3

Kenny "Ken-Flo" Florian vs. Clay "The Carpenter" Guida
Lightweight (155)

High energy against precision, the energizer bunny on crack versus two elbows that should be registered as lethal weapons. This fight is going to be awesome for us fans.

Guida never gets tired, ever. I'd love to watch him train, if I wasn't positive that doing so would be an exhausting affair. He couples that gas tank, with ferocious determination, and an ability to withstand a frightening amount of punishment. He is a fan favorite for good reason, he is a very likeable person, and he always, and I mean always, has entertaining fights. Unfortunately, that is as often to his detriment, as it is to his benefit. After his gut check loss to Diego Sanchez, he very much needs a win to stay relevent in the division.

Florian has fought for the lightweight title twice now in his career. losing both times, and after the second time, can ill afford to begin a losing streak. He brings nasty elbows, a very slick ground game, and an extremely cerebral approach to fighting that most fighters can't hope to match. He doesn't much look the part, but sleep on "Ken-Flo" because his looks are decieving, and you'll find yourself on the losing end of a beatdown.

For Florian to get the "W", he will need to pick his spots with laser like precision, stuff a bazillion takedown attempts, avoid damage on the ground when it inevitably goes there for however long, and come ready to run a marathon. Guida on the other hand needs to have a much more measured pace, exhibit just a little bit of patience, beware the ginsu blades Florian calls elbows, and don't be afraid to back out if things get a little hairy.

This is my pick for Fight of the Night, and a good chance to be 15 minutes of bloody carnage. I think Florian may be very busy backpedalling much of this fight, but I also see Guida overextending himself much like he did against Roger Huerta. The only thing that is to be determined, is can Florian capitalize on the mistakes Guida makes, or has "The Carpenter" learned from his errors in previous bouts, and wear Florian out without exposing the weaker areas in his game? A back and forth scramble, with both fighters alternating rounds, until the gas tank of Guida simply outlasts Florian.

Guida via Unanimous Decision

Frank Mir vs. Cheick Kongo
Heavyweight (205-265)

One of the best strikers in the UFCs heavyweight division, squares off with the best submission fighter the organization has to offer. Kongo recently lost to heavyweight upstart Cain Velasquez in a fight he took on only two week notice, and Mir is coming off a devasting loss to champ Brock Lesnar. Both fighters are very strong where the other is week, and how they fare will depend on whether they decide to shore up their weekness, or just go guns blazing where they are strong.

Kongo is a good sized heavyweight, usually tipping the scales around 240 pounds or so, and carries a lot of muscle in his upper body that he uses to pummel people mercilessly. He has very strong striking, and his takedown game is definitely there, just not strong. While his skill on the feet is second to few, his ability when put on his back, is less than inspiring. The big Frenchman is going to look to stay at range, pepper Mir with his jab, and look for a homerun to put a firm stamp on the heavyweight division.

Frank Mir is a former heavyweight champ, and more recently was the interim champ after stopping Minotauro Nogueira for the first time in Nogueiras career. Mir is almost as big as they come in the division, usually around 255, and has supposedly started working to improve his strength, and conditioning more than it has been in his last few fights, which is a scary prospect. Mir is a high level brazilian jiu jitsu blackbelt, and has some of the most iconic submissions in UFC history. This combined with his improved striking, make him a scary well rounded competitor. Frank will need to close the distance with Kongo quickly, and not let him get off his jab. If he can avoid the big strikes (and knees to the man satchel) Mir should have no trouble wading through Kongos *snicker* takedown defense* and working a quick composition of the three tap symphony.

Fights like this bother me. The strengths of both men are evident, but what isn't is how they've lost to those strengths. Kongo has never been submitted, but Mir has lost by KO/TKO four times, and he has only lost four times, do the math. To me this fight is going to come down to how well each do about fixing what isn't working so well. Mir is a more complete martial artist, but has a suspect chin. Kongo has more gaping holes, but the fight starts standing, and Kongo hits hard. I gotta go with my heart, and say Mir wins by taking a Kongo limb home with him.

Mir via submission (armbar), Rd. 2

LIGHTWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP

BJ "The Prodigy" Penn vs. Diego "Nightmare" Sanchez

I had to reread that sentence to make sure I actually wrote it. After nine straight fights at welterweight, Sanchez has dropped down to lightweight, and made it to a title fight after only to bouts in that weight class. With very impressive wins over Joe Stevenson and Clay Guida, "Nightmare" has catapulted to the top of the 155 pyramid with his tenacity, vastly improved striking, and borderline insane self confidence. With a mental toughness that is second to none, Diego has already won this fight in his head, all he has left to do, is finish the physical aspect.

There is nothing I can say about BJ Penn that hasn't been said before. The most dominant 155 pound fighter in the world, has been reinvigorated with a desire to go down in history as one of the most dominant fighters of all time, and with each fight, he gets closer to cementing his legacy. Perhaps the best no gi/mma jiu jitsu practioner in the UFC, he uses his freakish flexibility, and amazing natural athleticism to frustrate, intimidate, and eventually, break his opponents. I'm not so sure that last one is possible against Sanchez.

Diego is up against a new type of fighter now. Using his old tactics of coming straight at him will most likely get him knocked out, or wrapped up in a submission. His best bet, is try and hop in and out of exchanges, and try to get the best of those encounters. I take that back, the best way for Sanchez to win, is if Penn takes him lightly, and gets out worked, but I don't think that has much of a chance of going down.

Sanchez has shown that he has improved his already impressive skillset, and has the mental toughness to compete with anyone, but against Penn, it just wont be enough, as "The Prodigy" manages to subdue "The Nightmare" with strikes midway through the fight.

Penn via TKO, Rd. 3.