A title fight, and two fights with potential title implications. As a fight fan, I couldn't be much more excited. Without further ado.....
Paul "The Headhunter" Buentello vs Stefan "Skyscraper" Struve
Heavyweight (205-265)
The UFC welcomes back former heavyweight title contender Buentello, who returns after a four year absence from the Octagon. A winner of six of his last seven fights, Buentello looks bring his brute strength and KO power to bear against the young up and coming Struve.
Struve is a submission fighter who has shown surprising durability, but suspect standup skills, and he is going to have to find a way to get this fight off the feet and twist Buentello into shapes most birthday clowns would find creative.
"The Headhunter" is an extremely experienced, and savvy veteran, who uses his strength, and granite chin to wade through his opponents striking game, absorb punishment like some kind of masochistic sponge, and knock the guy standing across from him, TFO! Struve, after losing his UFC debut to current title challenger Junior Dos Santos, has rattled off two straight, impressive submission wins. "Skyscraper" has the ability to get this fight down, and while he is tough as nails, his takedown defense is anything but stellar. It's just not certain if Struve can hang with the power, and freakish durability Buentello brings to the table.
This fight comes down to the ability of Struve to avoid big damage on his feet and get the fight to the ground where he can utilize his stout grappling acumen. Buentello has to avoid a ground fight, and keep his range at a point where he can drop his heavy hands on Struve and send him to sleepytown. I think the crafty vet keeps this fight standing, gets the KO, and gets a nice bonus check for KO of the Night!
Buentello via KO, Rd. 1
Jon Fitch vs Mike Pierce
Welterweight (170)
This fight was originally scheduled to be Fitch against Ricardo Almeida, but then Almeida got hurt. So Thiago Alves' fight against Mike Pierce was scrapped so Alves could rematch Fitch from their '06 tussle. Then Alves got hurt, and the UFC brass combined what was remaining, and we get a very underrated matchup.
Fitch started in the UFC, with an eight fight winning streak, quickly elevating himself to elite status. After his one sided, albeit hard fought decision loss to champion Georges St. Pierre, Fitch has gotten back on track with two straight wins, and looks to make it three with this fight against a UFC newcomer in Pierce, who is only in his second UFC fight.
Pierce is a strong wrestler, but against Fitch, strong just isn't good enough. Pierce struggled with late round takedowns in his fight against Brock Larson in September, and Fitch is in another league when it comes to takedown defense, and cardio. Fitch is hungry for another title shot, but until St. Pierre loses, or Fitch rattles off another eight straight, the big mean former Purdue wrestling captain, will have to make due with terrorizing the ranks of the welterweight division.
Fitch has okay standup, but his bread and butter is his ground and pound. Pierce is going to need to keep this fight standing, and try and out point Fitch, and maybe even work a takedown or two of his own. I just don't see either of those happening. Look for the victory scowl to return as Fitch puts on a top control clinic, and gets a referee stoppage in the third round.
Fitch via TKO, Rd 3
Kenny "Ken-Flo" Florian vs. Clay "The Carpenter" Guida
Lightweight (155)
High energy against precision, the energizer bunny on crack versus two elbows that should be registered as lethal weapons. This fight is going to be awesome for us fans.
Guida never gets tired, ever. I'd love to watch him train, if I wasn't positive that doing so would be an exhausting affair. He couples that gas tank, with ferocious determination, and an ability to withstand a frightening amount of punishment. He is a fan favorite for good reason, he is a very likeable person, and he always, and I mean always, has entertaining fights. Unfortunately, that is as often to his detriment, as it is to his benefit. After his gut check loss to Diego Sanchez, he very much needs a win to stay relevent in the division.
Florian has fought for the lightweight title twice now in his career. losing both times, and after the second time, can ill afford to begin a losing streak. He brings nasty elbows, a very slick ground game, and an extremely cerebral approach to fighting that most fighters can't hope to match. He doesn't much look the part, but sleep on "Ken-Flo" because his looks are decieving, and you'll find yourself on the losing end of a beatdown.
For Florian to get the "W", he will need to pick his spots with laser like precision, stuff a bazillion takedown attempts, avoid damage on the ground when it inevitably goes there for however long, and come ready to run a marathon. Guida on the other hand needs to have a much more measured pace, exhibit just a little bit of patience, beware the ginsu blades Florian calls elbows, and don't be afraid to back out if things get a little hairy.
This is my pick for Fight of the Night, and a good chance to be 15 minutes of bloody carnage. I think Florian may be very busy backpedalling much of this fight, but I also see Guida overextending himself much like he did against Roger Huerta. The only thing that is to be determined, is can Florian capitalize on the mistakes Guida makes, or has "The Carpenter" learned from his errors in previous bouts, and wear Florian out without exposing the weaker areas in his game? A back and forth scramble, with both fighters alternating rounds, until the gas tank of Guida simply outlasts Florian.
Guida via Unanimous Decision
Frank Mir vs. Cheick Kongo
Heavyweight (205-265)
One of the best strikers in the UFCs heavyweight division, squares off with the best submission fighter the organization has to offer. Kongo recently lost to heavyweight upstart Cain Velasquez in a fight he took on only two week notice, and Mir is coming off a devasting loss to champ Brock Lesnar. Both fighters are very strong where the other is week, and how they fare will depend on whether they decide to shore up their weekness, or just go guns blazing where they are strong.
Kongo is a good sized heavyweight, usually tipping the scales around 240 pounds or so, and carries a lot of muscle in his upper body that he uses to pummel people mercilessly. He has very strong striking, and his takedown game is definitely there, just not strong. While his skill on the feet is second to few, his ability when put on his back, is less than inspiring. The big Frenchman is going to look to stay at range, pepper Mir with his jab, and look for a homerun to put a firm stamp on the heavyweight division.
Frank Mir is a former heavyweight champ, and more recently was the interim champ after stopping Minotauro Nogueira for the first time in Nogueiras career. Mir is almost as big as they come in the division, usually around 255, and has supposedly started working to improve his strength, and conditioning more than it has been in his last few fights, which is a scary prospect. Mir is a high level brazilian jiu jitsu blackbelt, and has some of the most iconic submissions in UFC history. This combined with his improved striking, make him a scary well rounded competitor. Frank will need to close the distance with Kongo quickly, and not let him get off his jab. If he can avoid the big strikes (and knees to the man satchel) Mir should have no trouble wading through Kongos *snicker* takedown defense* and working a quick composition of the three tap symphony.
Fights like this bother me. The strengths of both men are evident, but what isn't is how they've lost to those strengths. Kongo has never been submitted, but Mir has lost by KO/TKO four times, and he has only lost four times, do the math. To me this fight is going to come down to how well each do about fixing what isn't working so well. Mir is a more complete martial artist, but has a suspect chin. Kongo has more gaping holes, but the fight starts standing, and Kongo hits hard. I gotta go with my heart, and say Mir wins by taking a Kongo limb home with him.
Mir via submission (armbar), Rd. 2
LIGHTWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP
BJ "The Prodigy" Penn vs. Diego "Nightmare" Sanchez
I had to reread that sentence to make sure I actually wrote it. After nine straight fights at welterweight, Sanchez has dropped down to lightweight, and made it to a title fight after only to bouts in that weight class. With very impressive wins over Joe Stevenson and Clay Guida, "Nightmare" has catapulted to the top of the 155 pyramid with his tenacity, vastly improved striking, and borderline insane self confidence. With a mental toughness that is second to none, Diego has already won this fight in his head, all he has left to do, is finish the physical aspect.
There is nothing I can say about BJ Penn that hasn't been said before. The most dominant 155 pound fighter in the world, has been reinvigorated with a desire to go down in history as one of the most dominant fighters of all time, and with each fight, he gets closer to cementing his legacy. Perhaps the best no gi/mma jiu jitsu practioner in the UFC, he uses his freakish flexibility, and amazing natural athleticism to frustrate, intimidate, and eventually, break his opponents. I'm not so sure that last one is possible against Sanchez.
Diego is up against a new type of fighter now. Using his old tactics of coming straight at him will most likely get him knocked out, or wrapped up in a submission. His best bet, is try and hop in and out of exchanges, and try to get the best of those encounters. I take that back, the best way for Sanchez to win, is if Penn takes him lightly, and gets out worked, but I don't think that has much of a chance of going down.
Sanchez has shown that he has improved his already impressive skillset, and has the mental toughness to compete with anyone, but against Penn, it just wont be enough, as "The Prodigy" manages to subdue "The Nightmare" with strikes midway through the fight.
Penn via TKO, Rd. 3.
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
Friday, December 4, 2009
The Ultimate Fighter Finale
Well tomorrow is the culmination of the first season of the UFCs Ultimate Fighter reality show to feature all heavyweights. Sixteen fighters competed for the prize of a six figure contract in mixed martial arts most prestigious organization. Tomorrows finale will feature bouts between two of the competitors who did not reach the finale, two fights between some top tier fighters, a fight featuring the much hyped Kimbo Slice, and of course, the finale of the tournament. I've never done a write up for one of these shows, usually only pay per views, but this Saturdays fights promise to be extremely entertaining. So without further ado.....
Matt Mitrione vs Marcus "The Darkness" Jones
Mitrione was a fairly unlikeable character on this seasons show, but once he got in the ring, he showed that he has the skills, and durability to give any fighter fits. Jones was an extremely popular fighter by fans, and by the rest of his fellow fighters. A bit of a gentle giant, once "Big Baby" stepped into the ring, he showed that he brings more than a massive frame to the ring.
Jones has a surprising ground game, and frightening strength. Mitrione is going to want to keep this fight standing, and put more pressure on Jones suspect chin. On the other side, Jones wants nothing to do with the standup and power of "Meathead", and will look to take this fight to the ground as soon as he can. After his disappointing loss to finalist Brandon Schaub, he is very motivated to get a convincing win. I expect Jones to get the tap, tap, tap, from Mitrione.
Jones via submission (armbar) Rd. 1
Kevin "Kimbo Slice" Ferguson vs. Houston "The Assassin" Alexander
catchweight of 215 pounds
Alexander hasn't fought in the UFC in over a year, but definitely needs a win to stay in the good graces of the UFC brass. After two brutal KOs win in his first two UFC fights, he has lost three straight. He has precise striking, big power in his hands, and a mean streak a mile wide. He will most likely look to stay out of therange of Ferguson, and try to pick him apart.
"Kimbo" doesn't have the striking acumen of Alexander, but after his countless street fights, and few professional bouts, he has displayed a toughness and resolve, and ability to weather a decent amount of punishment. He lacks cardio, and his skill set is very raw, but what he lacks in defineable areas, he makes up for with a lot of intangibles.
All that being said, "Kimbo" has a lot working against him. The fight is at a catchweight (Alexander usually fights at 205 pounds), and according to many sources, Kimbo is not dealing well with the cut to 215. He has admitted to being moody, and somewhat fatigued, but insists he will make the cut no problem. Alexander has more experience in MMA, and is the more refined striker of the two. For Ferguson to win, he is going to want to get Alexander out of his game, and make the fight more of a brawl. It could happen, but I highly doubt it. This fight has all the hallmarks of not making it out of the first round, and expect the referee to wave a stop to this one well before the end of the first.
Alexander via TKO, 1st Rd.
Frankie "The Answer" Edgar vs. Matt Veach
Lightweight (155)
One of only three fights not set for the heavyweight division, this lightweight bout features one of the top fighters in the division, Edgar, and one of the up and comers in Veach. After his very impressive victory over former champion Sean Sherk, Edgar is looking at continuing his ascent up the 155 pound ladder. Veach is facing his first real challenge in Edgar, and despite his impressive record, he's never fought anyone in the caliber of "The Answer".
Although on the small side for the division, Edgar has proven his mettle and only lost once in his career. He has beaten some of the best lightweights out there in Tyson Griffin, Hermes Franca, Spencer Fisher, and Sherk. His boxing is sharp, and has strong takedowns, and takedown defense. His cardio is sharp, and he always keeps a level head, he has a lot going in his favor.
Veach is young, and has only fought once in the UFC. He fought in February, and got a stoppage win over Matt Grice. He is undefeated, and has only gone to decision once, but is in over his head against Edgar. He may be a somewhat larger fighter, but everything he does, Edgar does better. Veach may try to take this fight to the ground, and utilize his wrestling, but if Sean Sherk had a hard tim egetting Edgar to the mat, Veach has slim to no chance. Edgar will utilize his boxing and pepper Veach with jabs and hooks until Veach starts to get desparate, and at that point, it's all over. If this one makes it to the second round I will be surprised.
Edgar via KO, Rd. 1
Matt "The Hammer" Hamill vs. Jon "Bones" Jones
Lightheavyweight (205)
Hamill and Jones both share a strong wrestling background, with Hamill being the more decorated of the two, but Jones being the flashier, and more dynamic grappler. Hamill has improved his striking by leaps and bounds, proven by his nasty head kick KO of Anthony Munoz in March. Jones leapt onto the scene with his very impressive decision win over Stephan Bonnar in January, and followed it up with a submission win over former heavyweight, Jake O'Brien in July.
Hamill is trying to push his way up towards the top of the lightheavyweight division, and Jones is looking to establish himself as one of the new faces in the ranks of the 205. This fight should be tough, with Hamill looking to clinch with Jones and utilize dirty boxing, and try to get Jones down for ground and pound. Jones will use his flashy, but effective strikes, like spinning back elbows, and hook kicks, and try to whittle Hamill down.
Hamill has a tough chin, and hits like a cement mixer. Jones has better striking at range, and moves like a lightweight. This fight will be tightly contested the entire bout, and expect to have the judges award Hamill the split decision.
Hamill via Split Decision.
TUF Finale
Roy "Big Country" Nelson vs. Brendan Schaub
Well, I picked Nelson at the beginning of the show, and my wife picked Schaub, so it stands to reason that we'd be on opposite side come the finale. Nelson doesn't look like it, but he has a slick ground game, and a wealth of experience. Schaub is a former pro football player, and is a big strong kid, but he has a fraction of the experience of Nelson, but a ton of natural athletic ability.
Roy has passed every test so far, and has looked more and more impressive as the season progressed. He has a tough chin, and an underrated striking game. Schaub is big and strong, and is able to stay calm under duress, as evidenced by his comeback win over Marcus Jones. Schaub has heavy hands, and is going to try and keep this fight standing. He'll look to stay at range, and force Nelson to make a mistake. Nelson will need to pick his spots on his feet, and look for a good opportunity to get the fight to the mat. If Schaub gets taken down, Nelson will look to pass guard, and pound him out, or apply a submission. I expect the latter, and the new Ultimate Fighter winner via submission will have his hand raised!
Nelson, via submission (rear naked choke) Rd. 2
Matt Mitrione vs Marcus "The Darkness" Jones
Mitrione was a fairly unlikeable character on this seasons show, but once he got in the ring, he showed that he has the skills, and durability to give any fighter fits. Jones was an extremely popular fighter by fans, and by the rest of his fellow fighters. A bit of a gentle giant, once "Big Baby" stepped into the ring, he showed that he brings more than a massive frame to the ring.
Jones has a surprising ground game, and frightening strength. Mitrione is going to want to keep this fight standing, and put more pressure on Jones suspect chin. On the other side, Jones wants nothing to do with the standup and power of "Meathead", and will look to take this fight to the ground as soon as he can. After his disappointing loss to finalist Brandon Schaub, he is very motivated to get a convincing win. I expect Jones to get the tap, tap, tap, from Mitrione.
Jones via submission (armbar) Rd. 1
Kevin "Kimbo Slice" Ferguson vs. Houston "The Assassin" Alexander
catchweight of 215 pounds
Alexander hasn't fought in the UFC in over a year, but definitely needs a win to stay in the good graces of the UFC brass. After two brutal KOs win in his first two UFC fights, he has lost three straight. He has precise striking, big power in his hands, and a mean streak a mile wide. He will most likely look to stay out of therange of Ferguson, and try to pick him apart.
"Kimbo" doesn't have the striking acumen of Alexander, but after his countless street fights, and few professional bouts, he has displayed a toughness and resolve, and ability to weather a decent amount of punishment. He lacks cardio, and his skill set is very raw, but what he lacks in defineable areas, he makes up for with a lot of intangibles.
All that being said, "Kimbo" has a lot working against him. The fight is at a catchweight (Alexander usually fights at 205 pounds), and according to many sources, Kimbo is not dealing well with the cut to 215. He has admitted to being moody, and somewhat fatigued, but insists he will make the cut no problem. Alexander has more experience in MMA, and is the more refined striker of the two. For Ferguson to win, he is going to want to get Alexander out of his game, and make the fight more of a brawl. It could happen, but I highly doubt it. This fight has all the hallmarks of not making it out of the first round, and expect the referee to wave a stop to this one well before the end of the first.
Alexander via TKO, 1st Rd.
Frankie "The Answer" Edgar vs. Matt Veach
Lightweight (155)
One of only three fights not set for the heavyweight division, this lightweight bout features one of the top fighters in the division, Edgar, and one of the up and comers in Veach. After his very impressive victory over former champion Sean Sherk, Edgar is looking at continuing his ascent up the 155 pound ladder. Veach is facing his first real challenge in Edgar, and despite his impressive record, he's never fought anyone in the caliber of "The Answer".
Although on the small side for the division, Edgar has proven his mettle and only lost once in his career. He has beaten some of the best lightweights out there in Tyson Griffin, Hermes Franca, Spencer Fisher, and Sherk. His boxing is sharp, and has strong takedowns, and takedown defense. His cardio is sharp, and he always keeps a level head, he has a lot going in his favor.
Veach is young, and has only fought once in the UFC. He fought in February, and got a stoppage win over Matt Grice. He is undefeated, and has only gone to decision once, but is in over his head against Edgar. He may be a somewhat larger fighter, but everything he does, Edgar does better. Veach may try to take this fight to the ground, and utilize his wrestling, but if Sean Sherk had a hard tim egetting Edgar to the mat, Veach has slim to no chance. Edgar will utilize his boxing and pepper Veach with jabs and hooks until Veach starts to get desparate, and at that point, it's all over. If this one makes it to the second round I will be surprised.
Edgar via KO, Rd. 1
Matt "The Hammer" Hamill vs. Jon "Bones" Jones
Lightheavyweight (205)
Hamill and Jones both share a strong wrestling background, with Hamill being the more decorated of the two, but Jones being the flashier, and more dynamic grappler. Hamill has improved his striking by leaps and bounds, proven by his nasty head kick KO of Anthony Munoz in March. Jones leapt onto the scene with his very impressive decision win over Stephan Bonnar in January, and followed it up with a submission win over former heavyweight, Jake O'Brien in July.
Hamill is trying to push his way up towards the top of the lightheavyweight division, and Jones is looking to establish himself as one of the new faces in the ranks of the 205. This fight should be tough, with Hamill looking to clinch with Jones and utilize dirty boxing, and try to get Jones down for ground and pound. Jones will use his flashy, but effective strikes, like spinning back elbows, and hook kicks, and try to whittle Hamill down.
Hamill has a tough chin, and hits like a cement mixer. Jones has better striking at range, and moves like a lightweight. This fight will be tightly contested the entire bout, and expect to have the judges award Hamill the split decision.
Hamill via Split Decision.
TUF Finale
Roy "Big Country" Nelson vs. Brendan Schaub
Well, I picked Nelson at the beginning of the show, and my wife picked Schaub, so it stands to reason that we'd be on opposite side come the finale. Nelson doesn't look like it, but he has a slick ground game, and a wealth of experience. Schaub is a former pro football player, and is a big strong kid, but he has a fraction of the experience of Nelson, but a ton of natural athletic ability.
Roy has passed every test so far, and has looked more and more impressive as the season progressed. He has a tough chin, and an underrated striking game. Schaub is big and strong, and is able to stay calm under duress, as evidenced by his comeback win over Marcus Jones. Schaub has heavy hands, and is going to try and keep this fight standing. He'll look to stay at range, and force Nelson to make a mistake. Nelson will need to pick his spots on his feet, and look for a good opportunity to get the fight to the mat. If Schaub gets taken down, Nelson will look to pass guard, and pound him out, or apply a submission. I expect the latter, and the new Ultimate Fighter winner via submission will have his hand raised!
Nelson, via submission (rear naked choke) Rd. 2
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