UFC 106

Well, I slacked off and missed last week, didn't get the preview out. I was punished by getting one of five picks right. This will be different, I hope. Anyways, here goes nothing.

First, Karo Parisyan has pulled out of his welterweight bout with Dustin Hazelett for reasons unknown. He says it's because he was unlicensed in the state of Nevada, which was refuted by the chairman of the Nevada State Athletic Commission. Regardless of reason, Parisyan withdrawn from his fight, Hazelett has been paid his show and win bonuses, and the card has been reshuffled.



Phil "The New York Bad Ass" Baroni vs Amir Sadollah Welterweight (170)

After a lengthy time out of the Octagon due to injury, Sadollah finally made his debut, only to be upset by the refereeing of Dan Miragliotta. He will look to get back on the winning track by facing a hard hitting, pitiful cardio having, abrasive mofo. No not Tank Abbott, Phil Baroni! Baroni hasn't fought since getting outpointed by Joe Riggs. Let me repeat that. HE WAS OUT POINTED BY JOE RIGGS! Amir ig going to do his best to avoid a quick barrage of hard hitting, fireworks, and drop Baroni with either some nasty muy thai, or slap a submission on him. Needless to say, I don't see this fight getting past the second round.

Sadollah via submission (triangle) in Rd. 2

Antonio Rogerio "Minotoro" Nogueira vs. Luis "Banha" Cane lightheavyweight (205)

The twin brother of the former heavyweight champion Antonio Rodrigo "Minotauro" Nogueira, makes his UFC debut. Lil Nog, as he is known to differentiate him from his brother, is an extremely talented, highly experienced fighter. He is expected to jump right into the deep end of the lightheavyweight pool, and possibly challenge for the title. He faces no easy task in Cane though.

"Banha" has brutally accurate strikes, and a nasty muy thai game. He has one loss on his record, and that came via DQ to James Irvin in a 2007 fight. He has wins over Steve Cantwell, Sokodjou, and is also expected to perhaps get into the title mix. Lil Nog is a step up in competition, and Cane's stiffest test to date. After a shocking TKO loss to Sokodjou, he has rattled off five straight, with four coming via stoppage. This has a great chance at fight of the night, and should be an extremely tough, gritty fight between two very durable Brazilians. I expect the judges will have a very tough decision to make at the end of this fight.

Nogueira via split decision.

Paulo Thiago vs. Jacob "Christmas" Volkmann welterweight (170)

Volkmann has an undefeated record, tons of submissions skills, and a terrible nickname. Thiago has knocked out Josh Koscheck. Point for Thiago. All kidding aside, Thiago is a Brazilian jiu jitsu black belt, with far more submission experience, and is very unlikely to get caught in a submission by Volkmann. This fight is dependent on the submission defense of Volkmann, and the ability of Thiago to replicate his striking game he implemented against Koscheck.

Depending on what kind of takedowns Volklmann has, if he can't dictate where the fight goes, he's in big trouble. Look for Thiago to feel things out in the standup arena, and if things start to go south, get the fight to the mat and work his bjj advantage for the submission win.

Thiago via submission (armbar), Rd. 2

Josh " Kos" Koscheck vs. Anthony "Rumble" Johnson welterweight (170)

This fight is between two of the top ten welterweights in the UFC, and both are looking at getting a chance at fighting for the championship. Koscheck has more experience, better wrestling, and a more proven cardio. Johnson has a mammoth size advantage, more dynamic striking, and a MASSIVE SIZE ADVANTAGE!!! Having missed making weight in his last fight, Johnson is looking to prove to the UFC brass that he can make the weight consistently.

Both fighters have a very strong wrestling game, with Koscheck having the better pedigree. Johnson has a slightly more refined striking game, with Koscheck subscribing to the "wing overhand rights as hard as I can" school of striking. Neither fighter has much in the way of submission strengths, but with a heavy top control, and ruthless ground and pound, I put the advantage in this area in Koschecks camp. If this fight stays standing, Johnson has a big advantage in the precision and reach. "Rumble is a freakishly large man for 170 pounds, and could apparently compete comfortably at 185 or even 205.

All things being said, this should be a very tough fight, with both fighters likely to eschew any type of ground fighting in favor of trying to put the other man to the canvas with big bombs. Look for the size, reach, and strength of Johnson to put Kosckeck to sleep in the second round.

Johnson via KO, Rd. 2.

Main Event

Tito "The Huntington Beach Bad Boy" Ortiz vs. Forrest Griffin lightheavyweight (205)

I didn't think I'd ever see Ortiz back in the UFC after his high profile feud with Dana White, and subsequent departure from the organization. White has softened his stance regarding many of his feuds, but none more public than the one with Ortiz.

All the drama aside, Ortiz is fighting for the first time in over a year and a half, and is injury free for the first time since he fought Randy Couture in 2003. Ortiz no longer has the nagging back problems that have plagued him for much of the past six years, and a healthy Ortiz is a scary fighter indeed. So is the man he is facing.

Forrest Griffin is not quite in a must win situation, but having lost his last two fights, he is indeed in need of a W. He lost the lightheavyweight title, then was thouroughly embarassed by Anderson Silva. Not shabby competition, but the way he lost to Silva, well lets just say Griffin needs a dominant win to show that he has put that loss behind him.

Griffin is at his best when he can drag the fight into the later rounds, and wear his opponents out. He is big and strong, and has an engine that just doesn't quit. Unfortunately, so does Ortiz. Tito has a better wrestling background, but Forrest is the bigger fighter, with a strong takedown defense. It's oign to comedown to how healthy Tito's back is, at and whether or not Forrest can forget his last fight.

I think this fight should be good, but it's not a great matchup for Ortiz. He won a razor thin split decision the first time they fought, and Griffin is a markedly improved fighter since then. Tito will be frustrated with leg kicks, dirty boxing, and the sprawl and brawl Forrest throws his way. It'll probably go all three rounds, but just like Griffin-Bonnar, the second time around will not be nearly as close, but this time, Forrest gets the win.

Griffin via Unanimous Decision.