UFC 104

Ahhh, here we are my friends. It's time for the moderately anticipated UFC previews that only I know how to put forth. That being said, here goes nothing.

Welterweight (170)

Anthony "Rumble" Johnson vs. Yoshiyuki "Zenko" Yoshida

I don't know exactly what Zenko means. I know he was the founder of a very old clan in feudal Japan, but other than that, your guess is as good as mine. I do happen to know exactly what rumble means though, "you're going to have a bad night!".

I did a little research, and found out that Johnson when not in fighting shape, walks around at or near 220 pounds. The man is an absolute giant at 170, and has shown that the massive weight cut doesn't really affect him. His destructions of Tommy Speers, Kevin Burns, and Luigi Fioravanti are testaments to this. Yoshida is a very tough judoka, but we all remember him for getting KTFO'd twice in one fight by Josh Koscheck last December.

Johnson is bigger, stronger, and younger. Yoshida is more experienced, and a better submission fighter, which was shown to be a weakness when Johnson loss to Rich Clementi in his second UFC fight. I really want to say Yoshida has a chance, and he does, just not a good one. So long as he can get inside the condor like reach of Johnson, and utilize his judo skills to try and get the bigger man to the mat, Yoshida can perhaps pull off the submission upset. I just don't think it's going to happen. Look for "Rumble" to maintain good distance, and use his explosive speed and power to send "Zenko" to the mat in brutal fashion.

Johnson via TKO, Rd.1

Lightweight (155)

Spencer "King" Fisher vs. Joe "Daddy" Stevenson

This could be a very interesting fight, and if not for the Velasquez-Rothwell scrap later on, would be my lock for fight of the night. After losing three of four fights (to BJ Penn, Kenny Florian, and Diego Sanchez) Stevenson got back on track with an impressive win over Nate Diaz. Joe is training with a fantastic camp (Greg Jackson) and is going to need all the gameplanning Jackson brings to the table, because Fisher is a tough cookie.

"King" is the definition of wily veteran. In his UFC debut, he submitted current welterweight contender Thiago Alves, before dropping down to lightweight, a more natural fit for him. Fisher has great boxing, underrated submission skills, and excellent cardio. His two fights with Sam stout showcased his striking and conditioning, but also his toughness, and ability to absorb damage, and just keep moving forward. He has shown trouble with strong wrestlers though. Not taking damage on the ground necessarily, but avoiding takedowns. If he can keep the fight standing, he has the reach, and striking acumen to give Stevenson fits, and possibly get a finish.

"Daddy" is going to want to get in close, work some takedowns and ground and pound, and grind Fishers head in. I see this going back and forth, with Joe getting his hand raised after three very tough rounds.

Stevenson via Split Decision.

Lightweight (155)

Gleison Tibau vs. Josh "The Dentist" Neer

Tibau is a mystery to me. He has all the tools to be a fantastic fighter. Size, speed, strength, jiu-jitsu, striking, but he seems to be lacking the mental make-up to become that top tier fighter. Not that he makes mistakes, just that when it comes to implementing a gameplan, or sticking to his strengths, all his skill goes out the window once the fight doesn't go his way. Like Anthony Johnson, Tibau is a monster for his weight class. He had a few fights at 170, where was also big, and I am pretty sure come fight time, weighs around 185 or so. The weight cut hasn't really shown that it tires him out, so I really don't know why he's amassed only a 5-4 record in the UFC. His road does not get any easier against Josh Neer.

Neer is also a big fella for 155, and has shown that he is not averse to dragging fights into the muck. "The Dentist" will rarely look pretty in his fights, but his vast arsenal of skills from striking to grappling to submissions is not something to be taken lightly. A member of Pat Miletich's gym, he will need that extensive wrestling background to keep Tibau frustrated, and out of his element. Tibau has shown trouble with fighters who have good takedowns, most recently Tyson Griffin, and Joe Stevenson. If he wants to prevent Neer from controlling the fight, Tibau will need to get inside the strikes of neer, and use his strength advantage to put Neer on his back, and work for a submission, or just pound him out for three rounds.

Ultimately, the difference between these two very evenly matched fighters, is mental toughness. Neer has it in Spades, and Tibau's is still in question. This will be a hard fought, though most likely one sided affair for Neer who gets the judges nod.

Neer via Unanimous Decision.

Heavyweight (265) Cain Velasquez vs. Ben Rothwell

This is going to be a great fight. "Fight of the Night" great fight. Velasquez is coming off an impressive gut check win over Cheick Kongo, where he was rocked with several shots from Kongo, yet recovered and managed to impose his will with takedowns and heavy top control. Still relatively new to the sport, he was originally scheduled to fight Shane Carwin for what was considered by most, the next shot at heavyweight champ, Brock Lesnar. With Carwin getting the speed pass to fight the champ, Ben Rothwell has moved into his spot, and provides a new host of problems for Velasquez to deal with.

Cain is a wrestling machine, with a great chin, outstanding cardio, and surprising striking skills. Against Carwin he may have wanted to avoid standing with him, and use his wrestling to get the fight into a comfortable arena for him. Against Rothwell, I'm not sure that's what he wants to do. Rothwell definitely does not posess the power of Carwin, but he is a more accurate striker, and has a much more well rounded ground game, with 11 of his 30 career victories coming via submission. Velasquez should try and work standing, create angles, and use his wrestling in reverse. Ben should be very comfortable where ever this fight takes place. He is extremely versatile, and is used to high profile fights, so Octagon jitters can almost be counted out entirely. His only loss in the last four years was to Andrei Arlovski last summer, and Arlovski earned that victory. Rothwell took the former UFC champ into the third round looked very good doing so. Rothwell also has a slight size advantage over Velasquez. About 25-30 pounds, which may not mean anything at all, but it bears mentioning simply because these two are so evenly matched.

I think this comes down to who wants it more, and who can respond to adversity better? I think when the dust clears, Rothwell's striking, submissions, grappling, and experience, all work against Velasquez. Big Ben gets the nod is a very close split decision.

Rothwell via Split Decision.

Lightheavyweight (205) Title Match

Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida vs. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua

Machida's first title defense is against a former champion, but one who hasn't really shown much since coming to the UFC. Rua lost to Forrest Griffin in his first fight (fighting on a blown out knee, but still), then barely beat Mark Coleman, which according to Stephan Bonnar, is much harder than anticipated, and of course, knocked out Chuck Liddell in what many think will have been his last UFC fight. Machida, on the other hand, is undefeated, and has been storming through the lightheavyweight division like wildfire.

After a slow start in the UFC, Machida has dispatched Tito Ortiz (Machida considers this his toughest fight to date) and two brutal finishes of Thiago Silva, and Rashad Evans. Words like elusive, frustrating, calculating, and precise all describe Machida's karate based style, but Rua is closer to the form he was in when he was crushing all challengers in Pride like Machida has been in the UFC.

Rua's base is Muy Thai, and brazilian jiu-jitsu, but expect more of the former, than the latter. The chances of Rua even getting close enough to take Machida down are slim, and it seems more in his nature to want to end things quickly, and brutally. Machida likes to feel things out, pick his spots, then make the other fighter unconscious. It's been working in his last two fights, but "Shogun" is a good enough counter puncher, that he may want to be more judicious with his offense, and press a bit more than he usually does.

The X Factor here, I think, is conditioning. Machida has shown that he is more than content to pick his spots, and stay out of harms way for three rounds. Rua, on the other hand, has always had suspect cardio, and tends to overextend himself, letting his ridiculous physical tools bail him out. Bad idea against "The Dragon", who will bide his time, maybe even get this fight into the championship rounds to test Rua's conditioning before unloading a world of hurt on him. Machida breaks the string of one and done lightheavyweight champs with a successful title defense by pummeling Rua on the ground until the ref waves him off.

Machida via TKO, Rd. 4